Lok Sabha Election 2024: UBS reveals what BJP, NDA, or I.N.D.I.A. alliance's wins may mean for Indian economy
UBS says that if the BJP gets the absolutely majority after the vote counting day on June 4, the party will reveal the roadmap of the developed India 2047; if the NDA alliance gets the absolute majority, reforms will continue but the alliance may find it difficult to take tough decisions.
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04:54 PM IST
Lok Sabha Election 2024: The dates for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections are out; the leading parties such as the BJP and the Congress have released their lists of candidates; and the first round of nomination will start from today. Amid such backdrop, brokerage UBS has come up with a report that highlights the economic scenarios that may arise if the BJP gets a majority, the NDA gets the majority, or the I.N.D.I.A. alliance gets the majority. UBS says that if the BJP gets the absolutely majority after the vote counting day on June 4, the roadmap of the developed India 2047 will be revealed; if the NDA alliance gets the absolute majority, reforms will continue but it will be difficult to take tough decisions. However, if none of the two happens and the I.N.D.I.A. alliance forms a weak coalition, the market may be worried about fiscal discipline. The 2024 Lok Sabha elections are to be held in seven phases from April 19-June 1. Here we take you through the important findings from the report.
UBS says Lok Sabha Elections 2024 may have three consequences-
1 - The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) can alone have an absolute majority
2- The NationalDemocratic Alliance can get a complete majority
3 - Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (I.N.D.I.A.) can form a weak government.
In all three scenarios, UBS predicts what will happen to India's macro economic factors if either of parties forms the government-
If BJP alone gets an absolute majority
The party will reveal the roadmap for developed India 2047.
The agenda for the first 100 days of the government is decided.
The government will take tough decisions.
There will be focus on supply chain, clean energy, infra, and manufacturing.
If NDA gets complete majority
In that case, reforms will continue, but it will be difficult to take tough decisions.
If I.N.D.I.A. alliance forms weak government
The report says, if that happens, the implementation of reforms will be difficult.
The market may be worried about fiscal discipline.
Impact on India's Macro economic factors
If BJP gets absolute majority-
Fiscal deficit- Consolidated
10-year bond yield- Will go down
Inflation- Stable at 4 per cent-5 per cent
Rupee- Will remain strong
If NDA gets absolute majority
Fiscal deficit- Consolidated but lesser than market expectations
10-year bond yield- Will go down
Inflation- In the range of 5 per cent-6 per cent
Rupee- Will remain stable
If I.N.D.I.A. gets absolute majority
Fiscal deficit- Market expects it will increase
10-year bond yield- Can go up
Inflation- Will be at 5 per cent-6 per cent, but the market will be worried
Rupee- Will remain weak in the beginning of the alliance's term
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