Revised GDP growth estimate for FY17 unchanged at 7.1%: CSO
Nominal GDP or GDP growth at current prices was 10.8 per cent during 2016-17, as against 10.4 per cent during 2015-16
Real gross domestic product (GDP) or GDP at constant (2011-12) prices for the years 2016-17 and 2015-16 stands at Rs 121.96 lakh crore and Rs 113.86 lakh crore, respectively, indicating growth of 7.1 per cent during 2016-17 and 8.2 per cent during 2015-16, according to the Central Statistics Office's revised estimate.
Nominal GDP or GDP at current prices for the year 2016-17 is estimated at Rs 152.54 lakh crore while that for the year 2015-16 is estimated as Rs 137.64 lakh crore, exhibiting a growth of 10.8 per cent during 2016-17 as against 10.4 per cent during 2015-16.
Estimates for the years 2011-12 to 2015-16 released today were subsequently revised by incorporating the new series of Index of Industrial Production (IIP) and Wholesale Price Index (WPI) released on May 31, 2017, and presented in National Accounts Statistics (NAS) 2017.
The First Revised Estimates for the year 2016-17 have been compiled using industry-wise/institution-wise detailed information instead of using the benchmark-indicator method employed at the time of release of Provisional Estimates on 31st May, 2017.
The estimates of GDP and other aggregates for the years 2014-15 and 2015-16 have undergone revision due to use of latest available data on agricultural production; industrial production especially those based on the provisional results of Annual Survey of Industries (ASI): 2015-16 and final results of ASI: 2014-15; government expenditure (replacing Revised Estimates with Actuals for the year 2015-16) and also more comprehensive data available from various source agencies and State/UT Directorates of Economics and Statistics.
The salient features of the estimates at aggregate level are indicated below:
At the aggregate level, nominal Gross Value Added (GVA) at basic prices increased by 10.1 per cent during 2016-17 as against 9.2 per cent during 2015-16. In terms of real GVA, i.e, GVA at constant (2011-12) basic prices, there has been a growth of 7.1 per cent in 2016-17, as against growth of 8.1 per cent in 2015-16.
The shares of different sectors of the economy in terms of overall GVA during 2011-12 to 2016-17 and corresponding annual growth rates are mentioned below:
The growth in real GVA during 2016-17 has been lower than that in 2015-16 mainly due to lower growth in ‘manufacturing’ (7.9%), ‘construction’ (1.3%), ‘transport, storage, communication & services related to broadcasting’ (4.3%), ‘trade, repair, hotels and restaurants’ (8.9%), ‘financial services’ (1.3%) and‘real estate, ownership of dwelling & professional services’ (8.0%).
At constant prices, the growth rates of primary (comprising agriculture, forestry, fishing and mining & quarrying), secondary (comprising manufacturing, electricity, gas, water supply & other utility services, and construction) and tertiary (services) sectors have been estimated as 7.4 per cent, 6.1 per cent and
7.5 per centduring 2016-17 as against a growth of 2.6 per cent, 9.4 per cent and 9.6 per cent, respectively, in the previous year.
Net National Income
Nominal Net National Income (NNI) at current prices for the year 2016-17 stands at Rs 134.9 lakh crore as against Rs 121.5 lakh crore in 2015-16, showing an increase of 11.0 per cent during 2016-17 as against an increase of 10.7 per cent in the previous year.
Gross National Disposable Income
Gross National Disposable Income (GNDI) at current prices is estimated as Rs 154.6 lakh crore for the year 2016-17, while the estimate for the year 2015-16 stands at Rs 140.2 lakh crore, showing a growth of 10.3 per cent as against 10.2 per cent in the year 2015-16.
Gross Saving during 2016-17 is estimated as Rs 45.73 lakh crore as against Rs 43.02 lakh crore during 2015-16. Rate of Gross Saving to GNDI for the year 2016-17 is estimated as 29.6 per cent as against 30.7 per cent, estimated for 2015-16.
The highest contributor to Gross Saving is the household sector, with a share of 54.2 per cent in the year 2016-17. However, this share has declined from 56.9 per cent in 2015-16. This decline can be attributed to decline in households gross financial savings, which has declined from Rs 15.21 lakh crore in 2015-16 to Rs 14.05 lakh crore in 2016-17.
On the other hand, as shown in Statement 5, the share of Non-Financial Corporations and Financial Corporations have increased from 39.8 per cent in 2015-16 to 41.0 per cent in 2016-17 and 6.8 per cent in 2015-16 to 7.3 per cent in 2016-17, respectively. The dis-saving of General Government has decreased from 3.5 per cent of Gross Saving in 2015-16 to 2.5 per cent in 2016-17.
Gross Capital Formation (GCF) at current and constant prices is estimated by two approaches :– (i) through flow of funds, derived as Gross Saving plus net capital inflow from abroad; and (ii) by the commodity flow approach, derived by the type of assets. The estimates of GCF through the flow of funds approach are treated as the firmer estimates, and the difference between the two approaches is taken as “errors and omissions”. However, GCF by industry of use and by institutional sectors do not include “valuables”, and therefore, these estimates are lower than the estimates available from commodity flow approach.
Gross Capital Formation (GCF) at current prices is estimated as Rs. 46.71 lakh crore for the year 2016-17 as compared to Rs 44.42 lakh crore during 2015-16. The rate of GCF to GDP declined from 32.3 per cent during 2015-16 to 30.6 per cent in the year 2016-17.
The rate of GCF excluding valuables to GDP stands at 30.8 per cent and 29.5 per cent for the years2015-16 and 2016-17, respectively. The rate of capital formation in the years 2011-12 to 2016-17 has been higher than the rate of saving because of net capital inflow from Rest of the World (ROW).
In terms of the share to the total GCF (at current prices), the highest contributor is Non-Financial Corporations. However, its share has declined from 56.0 percent in 2015-16 to 55.1 percent in 2016-17(Statement 9). Share of household sector in GCF is also significant, which has risen from 30.5 percent in 2015-16 to 31.4 percent in 2016-17. The share of General Government in GCF has increased from 11.9 per cent in 2015-16 to 12.9 per cent in 2016-17.
Within the Gross Capital Formation at current prices, the Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) amounted to Rs 43.52 lakh crore in 2016-17 as against Rs 39.18 lakh crore in 2015-16.
The rate of GFCF to GDP at current prices continues to be the same at 28.5 per cent in both the years 2015-16 and 2016-17. The change in stocks of inventories, at current prices, decreased from Rs 2.55 lakh crore in 2015-16 to Rs 1.00 lakh crore in 2016-17, while the valuables decreased from Rs 2.03 lakh crore in 2015-16 to Rs 1.76 lakh crore in 2016-17.
The rate of Gross Capital Formation to GDP at constant (2011-12) prices has decreased from 34.5 per cent in 2015-16 to 33.5 per cent in 2016-17.
Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices is estimated at Rs 90.05 lakh crore for the year 2016-17as against Rs 80.91 lakh crore in 2015-16. In relation to GDP, the rates of PFCE at current prices during 2015-16 and 2016-17 are estimated at 58.8 per cent and 59.0 per cent, respectively.
At constant (2011-12) prices, the PFCE is estimated as Rs. 63.51 lakh crore and Rs 68.12 lakh crore, respectively for the years 2015-16 and 2016-17. The corresponding rates of PFCE to GDP for the years 2015-16 and 2016-17 are 55.8 per cent and 55.9 per cent respectively.
Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at current prices is estimated as Rs. 16.64 lakh crore for the year 2016-17 as against Rs. 14.28 lakh crore during 2015-16. At constant (2011-12) prices, the estimates of GFCE for the years 2015-16 and 2016-17 stand at Rs. 11.25 lakh crore and Rs. 12.62 lakh crore respectively.
Estimates at per capita level
Per Capita Income, i.e., Per Capita Net National Income at current prices, is estimated as Rs. 94,731 and Rs. 1,03,870 respectively for the years 2015-16 and 2016-17. Correspondingly, Per Capita PFCE at current prices, for the years 2015-16 and 2016-17 is estimated at Rs. 63,065 and Rs 69,322, respectively.