India Inc believes growth number today is likely to spring up a surprise
Looking at the prediction, India Inc hopes for a slight pick-up in GDP (Gross Domestic Product) this fiscal between the range of 7.5%-7.8%.
The Central Statistics Office (CSO) is set to release India's growth numbers for the first quarter of this financial year later today.
Looking at the prediction, India Inc hopes for a slight pick-up in GDP (Gross Domestic Product) this fiscal between the range of 7.5%-7.8% mainly on the back of good monsoon, passage of key reforms and Goods and Service Tax (GST) Bill and continue Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows.
India’s GDP grew 7.9% in the January-March quarter of 2015-16, taking the overall economic growth to a five-year high of 7.6% for the entire fiscal.
Reserve Bank of India
On Monday, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its annual report said that the country's growth is likely to be pegged at 7.6% in the current fiscal.
Raghuram Rajan, Governor, RBI, said, “Both the Government and RBI have been engaged in the last few years in restoring macroeconomic stability to the economy. While the policy actions have had positive effects, there are a number of areas which should be considered “work in progress”.
Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (Ficci)
Indian economy is estimated to grow at 7.8% in the current financial year of 2016-17 (FY17) on the back of good monsoon, better performance of agriculture and industry sector, said a latest survey by Ficci.
Ficci's recent Economic Outlook Survey has put across a median GDP growth forecast of 7.8% for the current fiscal year. Further, the estimated median gross value added (GVA) growth forecast for Q1 FY17 has been put at 7.6%.
According to a PTI report, domestic rating agency Icra has estimated the GDP growth to remain flat at 7.2% in the first quarter under the gross value added (GVA) calculation, thanks to an uptick in the industrial sector negating the decline in services and farm sectors.
Last week, Icra senior economist Aditi Nayar said in a note that the pick-up in the industrial sector will help offset the decline in services and agriculture and allied activities, which will help the economy grow at 7.2% in the June quarter, same as in the corresponding period last year.
Moody's Investors Service retained India's growth forecast at 7.5% for 2016.
According to a PTI report, it said: "Our growth expectations for India, Indonesia, Korea and Saudi Arabia are unchanged from our previous outlook publication in May."
In its May 'Global Macro Outlook 2016-17' Moody's had said that India's growth will pick up slightly, climbing to 7.5% in 2016 and 2017, from 7.3% in 2015.
India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra)
India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) revised its GDP growth forecast for FY17 upwards to 7.8% from its earlier forecast of 7.7%, but the country still witnessed subdued investment from corporates.
Ind-Ra expects consumption demand to grow at 8.4% in FY17. However, industrial growth at 7.2% in FY17 will still be lower than the 7.4% witnessed in FY16.
Indian economy is expected to clock 7.9% growth in the current fiscal driven by better monsoon, government pay hike, key reforms and FDI inflows, Goldman Sachs had said.
“For the fiscal year 2016-17, we forecast real GDP to grow by 7.9% year—on—year, higher than consensus expectations of 7.5% and up from 7.6% in FY16,” Goldman Sachs said in a research note.
Economic Affairs Secretary Shaktikanta Das on Tuesday said, "A number of structural reforms have been undertaken by the government over the last two years."
"The impact of all this is beginning to be felt now. We are hoping to better our growth from last year-- closer to 8%."
"As per our analysis, the growth is likely to slow a tad - from 7.9% (YoY) in 4Q-FY16 to 7.6% in 1Q-FY17. In terms of gross value added (GVA), we have pencilled in a growth of 7.2% (YoY), slightly lower compared to 7.4% in the previous quarter", Abheek Barua, Chief Economist, HDFC Bank.
"For the whole year (FY17), we expect GDP growth of 7.8% compared to 7.6% last year. We believe that consumption is likely to get a boost amidst the rise in salaries of government employees, while a good monsoon and the uptick in sowing coverage is also likely to lead to a pick-up in farm output and consequently rural demand", Barua added.
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