Q2 GDP: India’s gross domestic product grows at 6.3% in July-Sept quarter of 2022-23 - check details here

India’s gross domestic product (GDP) for the July-September quarter of the current financial year grows at 6.3 per cent against 8.4 per cent in a year-ago quarter and 13.5 per cent in April-June quarter.

“Real GDP or GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in Q2 2022-23 is estimated at ₹38.17 lakh crore, as against ₹35.89 lakh crore in Q2 2021-22, showing a growth of 6.3 percent as compared to 8.4 percent in Q2 2021-22,” the Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation said in a release.

Analysts had projected the Indian economy would expand at half of the growth rate of 13.5 per cent recorded in April-June quarter this fiscal.

According to the rating agency ICRA, the gross domestic product (GDP) was expected to grow at 6.5 per cent, while the State Bank of India in its report pegged the growth rate at 5.8 per cent.

Earlier this month, in an article published in the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) bulletin, the GDP growth is pegged at 6.1 to 6.3 per cent in the second quarter of this fiscal year.

China registered an economic growth rate of 3.9 per cent in July-September, 2022.

Commenting on Q2 FY'23 GDP data, Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist, ICRA, said, "The Q2 FY2023 GDP growth of 6.3% came in similar to our estimate of 6.5%, even as the GVA rise of 5.6% trailed our forecast (6.3%) by a wide margin, led by an unexpected contraction in manufacturing that seems to reflect the impact of high input prices on margins in certain sectors. At the same time, GVA growth in agriculture, forestry and fishing has been estimated at above 4.0% for the third consecutive quarter, which seems somewhat optimistic based on the decidedly mixed first advance estimates of the kharif crop, that were followed by unseasonally heavy rainfall towards the end of the monsoon season. Services stood out as the clear driver of growth in Q2 FY2023, accounting for 5.3% of the 5.6% GVA growth in this period, with even the pandemic-scarred trade, hotels, transport, communication sub-segment surpassing its Q2 FY2020 performance."

"GDP growth was boosted by the performance of private consumption expenditure and gross fixed capital formation, whereas government expenditure displayed a discouraging contraction in Q2 FY2023, on account of the modest de-growth in the Centre's non-interest revenue expenditure. Additionally, net imports nearly doubled relative to the year-ago period, exerting a drag on the GDP growth. Moreover, discrepancies stood at a 10-quarter high in Q2 FY2023, which suggest substantial revisions in the sectoral growth prints may lie ahead," she added.

"With the Q2 FY2023 GDP growth only mildly below our forecast, we are retaining our estimate of the real GDP growth for FY2023 at 7.2%, although a deepening of the external slowdown poses a risk. The month-on-month momentum displayed by several high frequency indicators in October 2022 is healthy despite the early onset of the festive season, although the latter has clearly dampened YoY growth prints on account of a larger number of holidays, as seen in the marginal 0.1% rise in the core sector output in that month. We will review our forecasts once the high frequency data for the full month of November 2022 is available, as the average trends for Oct-Nov would provide a better gauge to assess the growth momentum in the ongoing quarter given the shift in the festive calendar in 2022 vs. 2021," she concluded.