4 Years of Modi Govt in 10 slides: From GDP, inflation, tax to stocks, see how things have changed

May 26, 2018, 01:36 PM IST

4 Years of Modi Govt: 48 months have passed since the BJP led NDA government came to power and now Prime Minister Narendra Modi has just a year to go before he faces the public again in general elections 2019. Way back in 2014, when he pulverised the Congress at the hustings, he made a lot of promises to the public and it is time to check whether he really did deliver on them or not. In terms of reforms, his role in rolling out the GST, RERA and Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code have been signal indeed and the same is with power sector, but then there was demonetisation too. GST and demonetisation impacted the economy negatively, but the former is expected to be a boon for India going forward - tax collections are already showing a rising trend. Here, sticking to the economy, is a brief but comprehensive insight into how effective a PM he really has been. 4 years of the Modi government will be completed on May 26:


1. On GDP front, PM Narendra Modi is currently sitting pretty with virtually all agencies in agreement that India is the fastest growing economy in the world. GDP growth rate has oscillated quite a bit though: From 6.4 pct in 2014, it jumped to an awe inspiring above 9 pct in 2016, but then fell back to under 6 pct, and is now on revival path with 7.2 pct in 2018. GDP, at an average, grew 7.3 pct in these 4 years, says CRISIL. However, this has been slower than in the previous decade when it was 7.6%.


2. Inflation: Retail prices have been mostly in control over the last 4 years, much more so than under the previous Manmohan Singh led UPA regime. From 8.48 pct in May 2014, it has come down to 4.58 pct in April 2018. It is likely to remain static in this range going forward, analysts say.


3. Stock markets: BSE Sensex has had a merry ride indeed, even though it has had a few stomach churning episodes too. From 24,716.90 points on May 26, 2014, it has jumped to a mammoth 34,344 points on May 23, 2018. During the NDA regime, the index surged to an all-time high of 36,443 points on January 29, 2018, while Nifty also crossed 10,000 mark for the first time ever.


4. Rupee: The Indian rupee, from Rs 58.59 to the US dollar has plunged to a level of 68.21 on May 25. There is still a big fall in the offing and brokerages say it is headed for the 70 mark.



5. FDI: The inflows have been heading northward in initial years, but then became static. From  a level of over $23.30 bn in FY14, it has risen to over $43 bn. 


6. Interest rates and bank NPAs: Govt has pitched for lower rates to boost the economy. However, it has been an uphill task. Even though RBI has not raised rates for 4 years, the oil shock may turn it hawkish enough to raise rates from the current level of 6. Earlier, it was ruling at 8 even. On the other hand, if you look at bank NPAs, then they have jumped from Rs 2.4 lakh cr in June, 2014 to Rs 7.8 lakh crore by the end of 2017.  


7. Jobs creation: Modi govt promised to create 100 mn jobs a year. While accusations of jobless growth are flying, EPFO data showed that 31 lakh jobs were created between Sept 2017 and Feb 2018.


8. Manufacturing: Govt targeted to raise share of manufacturing to 25 pct of GDP. This has not happened. The share of manufacturing has stayed static over 4 years at below 18. This has hit the Make in India drive hard.


9. Total tax collection: From Rs 6.38 tn in 2013-14, the figure has risen manifold to Rs 9.95 tn. The latter is a provisional figure. According to Income Tax department, 37.9 million ITRs were filed in FY14, while in FY18 this number stands at 68.4 million. 


10. Trade deficit has seen wild swings over the last 4 years. India's trade gap has widened due to the citizens' craze for gold leading to massive imports. To this has been added oil imports, and now that prices have been heading north, the situation is getting worse. Adding to that have been hugely rising imports from China thereby increasing the deficit. Exports have failed to keep up. Exports had risen to 5.2 pct in 2017 after hitting a low of -15.48 pct in 2016 and jumped to 9.8 pct in 12 months ended March, 2018. In FY14, it was 4.66 pct. According to Bloomberg, export growth has been under the growth logged in FY11 and FY12. In dollar terms, exports have remained virtually flat at $300 bn since FY12, says Bloomberg.