No-deal Brexit may cut Scottish GDP up to seven percent: Scotland's chief economist

Scotland`s economy could shrink by up to 7 percent if Britain leaves the European Union without a deal on March 29, according to a report by the Scottish government`s chief economist Gary Gillespie on Thursday.

Last year, the Bank of England said the UK economy could slump as much as 8 percent if Prime Minister Theresa May fails to reach a deal in time. Scotland makes up less than one tenth of Britain`s overall economy but is responsible for the United Kingdom`s biggest food and drink exports, such as whisky and salmon.

The report set out two "no-deal" scenarios for Scotland, one which saw a few months of supply chain disruption and a second which predicted longer term disruption.

Trade would be damaged, it said, with the potential for a drop in Scottish exports of up to one fifth and a fall in business investment of up to 1 billion pounds ($1.3 billion) in 2019.

Gillespie, whose role is independent of the devolved Scottish government, also spoke of a depreciation in sterling of up to 30 percent and a consequent fall in migration on which Scotland`s sparsely populated outlying regions, tourism and fresh food production depend to a large extent.

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