Many things will benefit India in the medium to long term amid the ongoing global uncertainties, says Anil Singhvi, Managing Editor, Zee Business. During a candid radio podcast, 'Kadak Currency’, with RJ Salil Acharya, Radio City, 91.1 FM, Mumbai, Mr Singhvi said Reduce your portfolio by selling whatever you can sell at upper levels and have some cash to invest it when the market will provide you with a chance.

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RJ Salil at the start of the podcast, 'Kadak Currency' said the festival season has started, a time when people hope that things will turn good. While going through statistics I found that if the market goes down a bit in January and February then it recovers in March and April and move up. Are we still in a honeymoon phase or the ongoing war situation or the worldwide issues are there and has a play? To which Mr Singhvi said, it depends on the fact that who makes the honeymoon and for how long but at the moment the markets have seen a ground reality. So, both things are there. On one side, there is war, prices of commodities are rising, petrol and diesel prices are increasing due to crude, the margins of all companies will be affected in this quarter results, there is a global uncertainty. These are certain things that have bothered the market and the interest rates have started rising in America. On the other hand, money is there and our local investors are continuously investing at lower levels and are slightly positive about the market from the long term perspective and have a view that things will get better once the war is over. So, the views are quite strong on both sides and this is a reason that you have seen that after taking a good dip or falling, there has also been a smart recovery in the market. So, right now, the outlook is that neither it is going to increase much nor it is going to decrease a lot. You will see trades on both sides. The market will be range-bound. It will behave bullishly on some good news and profit booking will be seen and it will fall on bad news. But one of the biggest things is that the uncertainty is due to global events including geopolitical tensions. Will the Russia- Ukraine issue will end here or will lead toward world war, even if it doesn't happen but may escalate. No one knows about it at present. So, until the uncertainty is not over, it will be difficult for the market to stay on top and it must be kept in the mind. So keep lightening up a little bit, continue booking profits, come in cash, you will get a chance to invest money in the market again on the lower levels.

In his second question of the podcast, RJ Salil said, that there is a theory that the way India has imported the crude from Russia and many other countries is also doing, not just with Russia but with different countries like some nations have a tie-up for natural gas with Turkey. Can it be something that there can be a new world order economic wise will be created? And do you think, amid the ongoing situation in Europe, India and other countries can emerge as a winner in the next six months to a year? Mr Singhvi said, 100%. No doubt that we never want that there should be a war between two nations and they should suffer and we should get the benefit of the same. But the reality is the reality when two people are fighting then they are bound to suffer and several things in it will benefit us. Yes, temporarily, the price of crude has increased for us but eventually, crude prices will come down with the supply and there is no doubt in it. Commodities prices have also moved up temporarily but eventually, it will come down. But for our companies, the economy, there will be several opportunities, where we can participate in the global trade, contribute more in it through exports and India can emerge as a strong manufacturing hub. So, there are certain short-term challenges, which will put pressure on companies like a rise in raw material prices and a decline in the margin. But in a long term, undoubtedly, we have a strong economy and a powerful country that is neutral and is not on any one of the two sides and has a big manufacturing scope. It is a big company with a huge population. So, I am sure that India will be benefitted from it in the medium to long term.

Continuing the podcast further, RJ Salil talked about the IPOs and said a lot of IPOs were scheduled to come and the biggest one that was being discussed was the LIC, and there is some uncertainty about it. Do you think that people should stay away from IPOs this time as we have already seen that valuations of certain big stocks like Paytm have dropped by almost 70% or IPOs are still lucrative as it was last year? To which Mr Singhvi said you want to ask that should investors stay away from the IPOs but the situation is that IPO itself has turned away from investors this year. It is not coming. The year's biggest IPO was set to come in March but given the global atmosphere, LIC Has postponed its IPO for the next financial year, i.e., from April 2022. None of the big IPOs is scheduled to come in March, by the way, how many days are left now, they can be counted at fingertips. Now, good IPOs will come in the next financial year and the interesting fact is that the prices of the new-age companies, termed e-commerce companies, has decreased at a great pace. So, the new IPOs that will come now will come at a good valuation and will be cheap and you will get a chance to make money on that front. However, there is a matter of loss for those who have bought it, and there is no doubt about it. But those who want to invest money in the new IPOs, should not see that how bad these IPOs became after listing. Now, you have to see whether the new company which is coming with IPO is bringing IPO by taking lessons from them, at a cheap valuation, at a cheap price and the answer will be yes. So, I am sure that you will get good opportunities and you should prepare for those.

In his next question, RJ Salil said, some of our listeners have asked about the takeover of some companies but their shares can be delisted. So, if an investor has an issue with his stocks then is there any forum like NCLT to approach and appeal if the stock turns zero and get delisted? In his reply to this question, Mr Singhvi said, the first thing in this is that the best thing for you is to have precautions. Precaution is safety, i.e., if there is some penny stock priced around Rs 2,4 5 to 10 then you must think that you are the cleverest in this world as you are getting the share at Rs 5, which is quite cheap and will turn Rs 50 from these levels. If the price of that share stands at Rs 5 in the combined wisdom of the market then many people are more intelligent than you and me in the market due to which the stock is priced at Rs 5. Yes, if are quite aware of the fact that these things are going to happen in the country and then you are buying it then it is a different aspect, generally, such information is not available with the retail investors. So, you need to be quite careful about the companies that are about to get into NCLT where debt resolution happens because it doesn't take any time in turning zero. When the debt resolution happens then the least money reaches the equity shareholders and there are times when they do not get anything, i.e. simply zero. In fact, you would have seen many such companies in the recent past and will continue to see this in the future. So, please, do not think that the prices of the companies going into debt resolution will rise to such levels and jump into it, for instance, Lakshmi Vilas Bank, Videocon, DHFL among others. So, the companies whose prices are almost zero and are delisting due to which you can sell off your shares or do anything else then there is a need to be careful and never think yourself at the cleverest as you can make four out of one in these shares.

RJ Salil said that there were expectations that its prices will go up by Rs 10-20 per litre but there is confusion that the prices have increased at the wholesale level but the general public has not faced it directly. So, are you eyeing these petrol stocks, although there is a huge movement in crude prices? To which Mr Singhvi said, I have an eye on it and have seen the entire journey of the crude oil from $140 per barrel to $100 per barrel and that was a time, when I turned bullish on the market, the time when the market (Nifty) took a U-turn from 15,671 levels. Now, keep a formula for a while and that is that if there is an increase in crude oil prices then our markets will decline and if the crude prices will decrease then our market will move ahead. You can assume a one-on-one correlation for some time. So, crude oil is the biggest factor at the moment and if the crude prices do not rise sharply then the market will remain settled. If the crude remains in the range of $100-110 per barrel then the market will trade in a range of 17,000-17,600, and if the crude prices fall to $80-85 per barrel then the market will touch the 18,000 mark while if its prices get back to $130-140 per barrel then the market will come down to around 16,000 mark. So, it is an easy task to analyse the market at present, just correlate it with the crude prices.

In his last question, RJ Salil enquired about Mr Singhvi's stock recommendations for the period. To which Mr Singhvi said that when we are trading around 17,400 levels on Nifty then I think one should book the profits and wait for a dip and buy after that dip. I am not in a hurry to buy because global uncertainties are more and the levels are slightly up. If the levels would have been around 16,000 then you would remember that my recommendation was to buy banks and NBFCs but I will not suggest anything now, wait for some time, create some cash and sell whatever you can sell from your portfolio at high levels and buy when the market will provide a chance to do so.