Government of India's first Covid-19 Vaccine purchase order is split between Covishield and Covaxin and covers 0.6% of India's population. Covishield is priced exactly in line, while Covaxin from Bharat Biotech is priced at 4x vs early indications. Covaxin is not a back-up vaccine as indicated earlier and has bagged 33% of first ordered quantities. Dr. Reddy's has got "first subject in" for India Phase-3 bridging study of Sputnik-V vaccine.

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The Government of India has placed its first Covid vaccine order on Monday. Serum Institute/ AZ/Oxford's recombinant vaccine Covishield is priced at $3 per dose while locally developed inactivated vaccine Covaxin from Bharat Biotech is priced at $4.2 per dose. Earlier reports had suggested USD1 per dose for Bharat Biotech's vaccine, which is a significant increase over preliminary estimates. If these early prices are an indication, the cost of vaccinating the entire country will be in the range of $8.2-11.6 Bn, assuming the government remains the primary buyer. These overall budget estimates are preliminary and expected to remain volatile till more vaccines enter the space or till the government releases higher quantity orders.

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Covaxin not a back-up, bags 33% of first ordered quantities:

Upon the receipt of Emergency Use Authorization for both the vaccines on 3rd January, a member of India's Covid Task Force had stated that Covaxin is expected to be a back-up vaccine, given that it is yet to complete and share data from ongoing Phase-3 trials. However, it has bagged 33% of the quantities in the first order released by the Government. Covaxin is expected to be deployed across 12 states in India. Bharat Biotech has not released any efficacy data from the vaccine trials yet.

Early days, purchase order covers 0.6% of India's population:

The first purchase order is a significant move as it sets price benchmarks for future. However, it covers only 0.6% of India's large population base. As per Jefferies estimate, this quantity is good for a fortnight worth of vaccination and the government should be releasing another purchase order before the end of January with further quantities.

Central government will bear the cost of first 2% of population:

In terms of cost share, the Central government has clarified that it will bear the cost of vaccinating the first 2% of the population entirely with no share from states. Therefore, the next purchase order is likely to follow the same process as the first one. Once states start sharing costs, there could be downward pressure on pricing or the respective states may resort to inviting tenders which would also potentially erode pricing.