US-Iran breakthrough hopes send equities soaring; crude cools to $89—What next for D-Street?

In a complex multi-faceted turn of events, the US appeared to have paused on Thursday what could have been an imminent new military escalation on Iran, with American President Donald Trump claiming that high-level negotiations between both sides had secured approval "at the highest levels" of the Iranian leadership. According to foreign media reports, Iran had submitted a draft agreement to the US through Qatari mediators. The text was reportedly finalised and sent to Washington for review, suggesting that Qatar played the final mediator role as Pakistan failed to do.

If the POTUS's claims are ultimately backed by concrete diplomatic action, the latest developments could mark one of the most significant breakthroughs in US-Iran engagement in recent years. US markets cheered the news and commodities stabilised, though contours of the proposed agreement remained undisclosed.

US vs Iran: What Donald Trump says

Trump claimed that both sides had reached an in-principle understanding on the final points of a broader agreement, prompting Washington to halt proposed military action against Tehran.

"I have cancelled the planned attacks and bombing of Iran this evening," the US president wrote on social networking platform Truth Social at almost 11 pm India time.

The US president claimed that discussions had progressed to both principle-level and detailed-level agreements and involved multiple regional stakeholders, including Israel, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Turkey, Pakistan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan and Egypt.

According to Trump, a naval blockade on Iran will remain in place until the agreement is formally concluded.

He also noted that details regarding the signing ceremony, including the venue and timing, would be announced shortly.

What the Iranian side said

Earlier, between 9 pm and 10 pm India time, Iran's Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf took to X (formerly Twitter) a strongly worded warning directed at Washington and its allies through a post on X.

Writing on social media platform X, Ghalibaf warned that any miscalculation could dramatically worsen the regional situation. "Wrong strategies and impulsive decisions will reset the entire board for the worse, explode energy infrastructure and markets and create an endless quagmire that you will be stuck in for years," he wrote.

"You will see a different Iran," Ghalibaf added.

Shortly after Ghalibaf's comments, the US military sought to reinforce its position regarding maritime security in the Gulf. In a post on X, the US Central Command (CENTCOM) said the Strait of Hormuz remains open for international transit and asserted that Iran does not control the strategically important waterway. The Strait of Hormuz remains central to the conflict, which began with joint American-Israeli strikes against Tehran on February 28 that killed Iran's Supreme Leader and triggered Iran's retaliatory action against several countries in the region.

The strait is a crucial maritime region connecting the Gulf of Oman with the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea that normally enables the supplies of 20 per cent of the world's oil and gas.

The exchange of statements came amid growing concerns in global energy and financial markets over the possibility of a wider conflict involving critical oil shipping routes.

Wall Street, crude oil and gold

US stock markets rallied sharply as investors appeared to cheer the apparent diplomatic breakthrough after several hours of rising tensions. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed 1.9 per cent higher while the broader S&P 500 gained 1.8 per cent and the tech stocks-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 2.5 per cent.

In commodities, oil prices remained largely stable, with Brent crude falling 1.2 per cent to $89.3 a barrel at the last count. Spot gold -- often viewed as a safe-haven asset during periods of uncertainty -- eased 0.5 per cent to $4,188.6 an ounce. Typically, rising geopolitical tensions and market uncertainty tend to push the yellow metal higher.

What's in it for Dalal Street?

GIFT Nifty futures -- an early indicator of Dalal Street's headline index, Nifty 50 -- were trading 325 points, or 1.4 per cent, higher at around 7:30 am in India on Friday, suggesting a gap-up opening in the Mumbai market in the last trading session of the week.

On Thursday, the headline index finished a volatile session -- full of seasaw moves -- 60.5 points, or 0.2 per cent, lower amid selling pressure in IT, FMCG and PSU bank counters.