Will Nifty hold 23,000? Why Anil Singhvi calls today's session a 'make-or-break' day

Indian equity benchmarks Sensex and Nifty 50 are likely to open on a cautious note on Tuesday, June 9.

Gift Nifty indicates a mildly negative start for the market. At around 8:15 am, Gift Nifty was trading around 23,140 levels, down 41 points from the previous close.

The outlook comes after a sharp sell-off on Monday. The Sensex fell 719.08 points, or 0.97 per cent, to close at 73,524.26, while the Nifty 50 declined 243.70 points, or 1.04 per cent, to end at 23,123.00. The Nifty slipped below the 23,200 level during the session.

Nifty at a crucial technical juncture

According to Zee Business Managing Editor Anil Singhvi, Tuesday could prove to be a “make-or-break” session for the Nifty.

He noted that the index has now filled both the intraday and closing gaps created during the April 7–8 period. The Nifty had recorded a high of 23,153 and closed at 23,123 on April 7. On June 3, the index completed the gap-filling process after touching a low of 23,151.

Interestingly, Monday’s closing level of 23,123 matched the April 7 closing level, making it an important technical reference point.

Singhvi believes the market may remain stable above current levels, but a close below the 23,000 mark could trigger a deeper correction and signal significant weakness in the near term.

Bank Nifty struggles near 50-DMA resistance

Bank Nifty is once again testing a critical breakout zone near its 50-day moving average (DMA), which has emerged as a major resistance level in recent months.

Singhvi pointed out that on the previous four occasions when Bank Nifty closed above its 50-DMA, the breakout eventually failed. In the last three instances, the index corrected between 4.1 per cent and 4.6 per cent within four to eight trading sessions.

The latest attempt also appears fragile. Bank Nifty hit an intraday high of 54,461 on June 4, above its then 50-DMA level of 54,427. It closed at 54,496 on June 5, marginally above the moving average. However, on Monday, the index again failed to sustain gains, touching an intraday high of 54,455 near the 50-DMA zone.

According to Singhvi, a decisive close above 54,500 is necessary for Bank Nifty to regain bullish momentum and support a broader market rally.

India VIX approaches key breakout zone

Volatility indicator India VIX is also trading near an important technical level.

The index surged 7.9 per cent on Monday to close at 17.03, just below its 100-DMA level of 17.10. It had earlier found support near its 200-DMA around 14.1 and has witnessed a sharp rebound over the last two sessions.

During Monday’s trade, India VIX touched an intraday high of 18.44, its highest level in nearly two weeks.

Singhvi highlighted that since May 26, the VIX has consistently closed below its 100-DMA while remaining above its 200-DMA support zone. He believes traders should wait for a decisive breakout on either side before drawing conclusions about market direction.

IT index faces a key test despite positive triggers

The Nifty IT index remains under pressure and has now declined for four consecutive sessions.

On Monday, the index touched a 14-day low of 28,417 and closed at 28,653, remaining below the key breakout-failure level of 29,600 for the fourth straight day.

This weakness has persisted despite two positive developments for the sector. Global AI and semiconductor stocks saw a correction on Friday, raising expectations of a reversal in the AI trade. Additionally, a US court reportedly termed a visa fee imposed during the Trump administration as unlawful, a development seen as favourable for Indian IT companies.

Singhvi said the sector’s response to these positive triggers will be closely watched. He believes the IT index will remain technically weak as long as it trades below the 30,000 mark. A close above 30,000 is needed to signal a meaningful improvement in sectoral sentiment.