Titan slides 6% after Q4; should you buy, sell or hold the stock?

Shares of Titan Company fell as much as 6 per cent on Monday, hitting an intraday low of Rs 4,245 on the BSE, even after the Tata Group-backed jewellery-to-watches major reported a strong set of earnings for the March quarter of FY26.

The sharp decline in the stock came amid concerns over margin pressure in the jewellery business, losses in international operations and the impact of elevated gold prices on future demand, even as analysts largely retained positive long-term views on the company.

Strong profit and revenue growth in Q4

Titan posted a consolidated net profit of Rs 1,179 crore in Q4FY26, marking a 35 per cent year-on-year rise from Rs 871 crore reported in the same period last year. The company’s total income surged 46 per cent to Rs 20,300 crore compared to Rs 13,891 crore in the year-ago quarter.

The jewellery division once again emerged as the key growth driver, clocking a robust 50 per cent growth over the previous year. Titan said higher gold prices, increased wedding-related purchases and continued market share gains supported the strong performance.

Its watches business reported total income of Rs 1,222 crore during the quarter, up 8 per cent year-on-year, while EBIT stood at Rs 143 crore with margins of 11.7 per cent. The domestic eyewear business posted revenue of Rs 227 crore, rising 17 per cent from a year ago, with EBIT of Rs 21 crore and margins of 9.2 per cent.

Why did Titan shares fall?

Despite the strong operational performance, investors appeared cautious over profitability trends. Several brokerages highlighted that jewellery margins remained under pressure due to a lower contribution from studded jewellery and the consolidation impact of Middle East-based jewellery retailer Damas.

Analysts also flagged concerns around losses in international operations and the possibility that elevated gold prices may have led to advance wedding-related purchases, potentially impacting future demand growth.

Morgan Stanley remains overweight

Global brokerage Morgan Stanley maintained its “Overweight” rating on Titan and raised the target price to Rs 5,212 from Rs 5,102, implying an upside of over 15.4 per cent from current levels.

The brokerage said Titan’s jewellery business delivered better-than-expected revenue growth and margins, aided by higher ticket sizes and strong wedding demand. However, it noted that overall earnings were weighed down by losses in emerging and international businesses.

Management reiterated its guidance of delivering 15–20 per cent CAGR in jewellery revenue over the next three to five years.

Goldman Sachs sees up to 20 per cent upside

Goldman Sachs retained its “Buy” rating with a target price of Rs 5,400, citing strong domestic jewellery margins and continued market share gains.

The brokerage said Titan could gain an additional 50–60 basis points of market share in FY26 as organised retail continues to expand. It also highlighted healthy EBIT growth in the domestic jewellery business despite high gold prices.

Other brokerages stay constructive

Meanwhile, Bernstein maintained its “Outperform” rating with a target of Rs 5,000, although it flagged moderation in growth at CaratLane and weaker-than-expected growth in the watches segment.

Domestic brokerage Nuvama Wealth Management reiterated a “Buy” call and increased its target price to Rs 5,240. It said the long-term outlook for organised retail remains favourable amid rising discretionary spending and improving consumer lifestyles.

Jefferies maintained a “Hold” rating with a revised target price of Rs 4,800, saying jewellery margins continued to soften, though it considered margin concerns less critical at this stage given the strong revenue trajectory.

Similarly, Citigroup retained a “Neutral” rating with a target price of Rs 5,075. Citi cautioned that rising gold prices may have advanced some wedding-related demand, making FY27 growth trends crucial for sustaining current valuations.

International business under pressure

Brokerages also pointed to weakness in Titan’s international jewellery business due to disruptions in the Middle East and the integration of Damas. However, management indicated that international margins could return to positive territory over the next two to three quarters.

Despite Monday’s sharp correction in the stock, most analysts remain constructive on Titan’s medium-term outlook, betting on sustained growth in organised jewellery retail, market share gains and healthy demand momentum across key consumer categories.