Tata Steel shares set to hit Rs 275? Here’s what brokerages said after Q4 results

Shares of Tata Steel are likely to remain in focus on Monday after the steel major reported a sharp rise in fourth-quarter earnings and announced a dividend for FY26.

The company posted a consolidated net profit of Rs 2,926 crore for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, marking a 125 per cent year-on-year (YoY) jump from Rs 1,301 crore in the year-ago period.

Revenue from operations rose 12.5 per cent YoY to Rs 63,270 crore in Q4 FY26, compared with Rs 56,218 crore a year earlier.

EBITDA rises 50 per cent

Tata Steel’s earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) climbed 50 per cent YoY to Rs 9,828 crore in the March quarter from Rs 6,559 crore last year.

The EBITDA margin improved to 15.53 per cent from 11.67 per cent in the corresponding quarter last year.

Operationally, crude steel production increased 14 per cent YoY to 6.22 million tonnes. Deliveries rose to 6.19 million tonnes, which the company described as its highest-ever quarterly deliveries.

The Netherlands business reported revenue of €1,605 million and EBITDA of €58 million during the quarter. Liquid steel production stood at 1.63 million tonnes, while deliveries came in at 1.70 million tonnes.

The UK business posted revenue of £470 million and an EBITDA loss of £48 million. Deliveries stood at 0.52 million tonnes amid weak demand conditions.

Tata Steel dividend details

The board recommended a dividend of Rs 4 per equity share of face value Re 1 each for FY26. The proposed dividend is subject to shareholder approval at the company’s annual general meeting scheduled on July 2, 2026.

If approved, the dividend will be paid on or after July 6, 2026. Tata Steel fixed June 12, 2026, as the record date for determining eligible shareholders.

Brokerages remain split despite strong quarter

Global brokerages largely acknowledged Tata Steel’s strong March quarter performance, though views on the stock remain divided due to concerns around Europe operations and long-term growth visibility.

JP Morgan downgraded Tata Steel to “Neutral” from “Overweight” and cut its target price to Rs 220 from Rs 225. The brokerage said the stock has already rallied 38 per cent over the past year, sharply outperforming the Nifty, and flagged regulatory cost pressures in the Netherlands as a key risk.

JP Morgan also highlighted risks linked to possible early closure of coke and gas plants in the Netherlands, project delays in the UK electric arc furnace (EAF) project, and delays in the India-NINL expansion plans.

Jefferies maintained its “Buy” rating and raised the target price to Rs 275 from Rs 240. The brokerage increased FY27 and FY28 earnings estimates by 6-14 per cent and expects Tata Steel’s India business to deliver healthy volume growth along with margin expansion in FY27.

However, Jefferies noted that the next phase of capacity expansion is yet to begin, which may limit growth visibility beyond FY27.

Morgan Stanley maintained an “Overweight” rating with a target price of Rs 215. The brokerage said Tata Steel delivered strong results across domestic and overseas operations and sees support from higher steel prices in India along with policy support in the UK and European Union.

Citi retained its “Sell” rating and raised the target price to Rs 200 from Rs 180. Citi said India business margins are likely to improve further in the first quarter of FY27, helped by higher realisations. However, it cautioned that uncertainty around environmental regulations in the Netherlands remains a concern.

CLSA maintained a “Hold” rating with a revised target price of Rs 225. The brokerage expects near-term profitability to improve due to higher steel prices across geographies but sees limited medium-term volume growth until the NINL project gets commissioned.

Goldman Sachs maintained a “Neutral” stance and raised its target price to Rs 218 from Rs 210. The brokerage highlighted improving price-cost spreads and expected growth in India sales volume in FY27, but flagged regulatory uncertainty and operational disruptions in the Netherlands as key risks for Tata Steel Europe’s profitability.