Nifty IT tumbles to 52-week low as Trump tariff fears mount; TCS, Infosys, Mphasis lead crash

The Nifty IT index slipped over 10 per cent in three sessions, touching a 52-week low as recession concerns spooked investors. Kotak sees up to 35 per cent downside ahead.

The Nifty IT index extended losses on April 7, 2025, plunging over 5 per cent to a fresh 52-week low. In just three sessions, the index has tumbled more than 5,000 points, a 10 per cent wipeout, as investors turned risk-averse amid mounting concerns of a potential recession in the US, India’s largest export market for tech services.

TCS, Infosys, Mphasis and LTIMindtree were among the top drags, with each falling between 4.8 per cent and 8 per cent. TCS alone shed over Rs 60,000 crore in market value as it declined 5 per cent ahead of its Q4 results on April 10.

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Bearish outlook intensifies with Kotak's 35% downside warning

Kotak Institutional Equities painted a grim picture, flagging a possible 35 per cent correction in IT stocks if the US recession worsens. According to Kanwaljit Saluja of Kotak, Infosys and Wipro face the highest risks due to their large exposure to discretionary spends.

Their bear-case targets include:

• Persistent Systems: Rs 3,010 (-35%)

• Mphasis: Rs 1,564 (-30%)

• Tech Mahindra: Rs 1,020 (-23%)

• LTIMindtree: Rs 3,133 (-24%)

• Infosys: Rs 1,170 (-19%)

JPMorgan: Stay light on IT positioning

JPMorgan analysts echoed caution, raising US recession odds to 60 per cent and advising investors to stay underweight on Indian IT. The brokerage believes Q4 guidance from IT firms may be conservative, limiting near-term upside potential.

The Nifty IT rout underscores how vulnerable Indian tech stocks remain to global macro shocks. Investors now await results from TCS (April 10) and Infosys (April 17) for cues on the FY26 outlook.