JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley cut targets for Coal India, Dabur, NMDC – panic or hold?

Markets are trading choppy making investors cautious as brokerage houses trim target prices for Coal India, NMDC, and Dabur India below current levels, sparking concerns in the market. Analysts, however, say the move does not call for panic, emphasizing the long-term growth potential in these selective stocks amid sectoral tailwinds.

Coal India share price target

Coal India shares closed at Rs 417 on February 18. JP Morgan maintained a neutral rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 397 — below the current market price. However, market experts see opportunities for long-term gains.

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Siddharth Sedani of Anand Rathi Research said, “Rising electricity demand is likely to support production volumes. We maintain a BUY rating on Coal India with a target of Rs 480. The company’s production volume is expected to reach around 800 million tonnes by FY27, and our projections now extend to FY28E.”

Despite these positive signs, near-term challenges exist. Avinash Gorakshkar noted that Coal India’s coal output in February declined 0.8 per cent year-on-year to 74.1 million tonnes, while full-year FY25 production rose just 1.5 per cent to 695.3 million tonnes. “The short-term slowdown reflects operational challenges, but long-term demand drivers, especially in the power sector, remain robust,” he added.

NMDC share price target

In the industrial minerals segment, JP Morgan has maintained an Underweight rating on NMDC, assigning a target price of Rs 70, while the stock closed at Rs 80 on February 18.

Gorakshkar highlighted key reasons for caution: declining iron ore prices, regulatory pressures, and structural concerns in the domestic steel industry. Globally, slower steel production in China — the world’s largest consumer of iron ore — has further impacted iron ore pricing. “The weak steel demand in China directly affects global iron ore prices, and market sentiment around NMDC is cautious,” he said.

Investors are also concerned that NMDC may need to inject additional capital into underperforming steel units, which could pressure the company’s free cash flow despite strong operational performance. These factors are keeping the market sentiment cautious even though NMDC’s core operations remain stable.

Dabur India share price target

In the personal care sector, Morgan Stanley has retained an Underweight rating on Dabur India, with a target price of Rs 400 compared with a current market price of Rs 509.15.

According to Siddharth Sedani, Dabur’s performance remains broadly in line with expectations despite weak volume growth. “Input costs remain manageable, and margins are expected to get support going forward. Based on fundamentals, we maintain a BUY rating with a target of Rs 590,” he said.

At the same time, Gorakshkar noted that market sentiment around Dabur is currently negative. Domestic demand has softened, and margin pressures are rising. The company has indicated that Q4FY25 consolidated revenue may remain largely flat year-on-year. Additionally, EBITDA margins could contract by 150–175 basis points, reflecting cost pressures and weak demand — factors that are making investors cautious.

What investors should do

Although short-term headwinds are present for Coal India, NMDC, and Dabur India, experts advise keeping a long-term perspective. “Not every bearish brokerage note warrants panic selling,” said Sedani. Experts advise investors to not panic and remain cautious with optimistic outlook.