USD vs INR: Rupee rebounds 1.3% to open at 93.59 per dollar after record low; will recovery sustain?

USD vs INR: The rupee opened stronger on Monday, rising 1.3 per cent to 93.5875 against the U.S. dollar, compared to its previous close of 94.8125. The move follows a sharp and sustained fall in the domestic currency in recent sessions.

Fourth straight weekly decline; FY26 among weakest

The rupee declined about 1 per cent last week. This marked its fourth consecutive weekly fall. On Friday, the currency dropped 83 paise to close at a record low of 94.81 per dollar.

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For FY26, the rupee has weakened around 11 per cent, making it the weakest financial year performance since FY12. In calendar year 2026 so far, the rupee is down about 5.4 per cent.

What is pressuring the rupee?

According to Zee Business Managing Editor Anil Singhvi, multiple global and domestic factors have weighed on the currency:

• The dollar index has risen for the fourth straight session and is holding above the 100 mark
• A spike in crude oil prices has increased import pressure
• Weak exports have added to currency stress
• Concerns over a widening current account deficit have hurt sentiment
• Continuous selling by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) has added pressure on the rupee

RBI action to curb volatility

Singhvi highlighted that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has stepped in with a key measure to stabilise the currency. The central bank has directed banks to cap their net open rupee positions in the onshore deliverable market at $100 million at the end of each business day.

The rule will come into effect from April 10. However, he noted that banks are likely to start reducing positions immediately, which could lead to dollar selling in the near term.

Will the rupee see a sharp recovery?

Singhvi expects some near-term relief for the rupee. He thinks the rupee might gain 70 to 100 paise in the near future, given the reduction in bank jobs and a more readily available supply of dollars.

Still, he warned that the recovery's staying power hinges on international factors. The dollar index's path, the price of crude oil, and the influx of foreign investment will all play a crucial role.