USD vs INR: Rupee gains against US dollar; signs of a turnaround or short-term bounce?

USD vs INR: On Friday, April 17, the rupee rose because investors were feeling better about the stock market at home and tensions in West Asia eased for a short time.

The local currency moved closer to the 92.6 mark against the US dollar, extending its recent gains.

At around 12:52 pm IST, the rupee was trading at 92.82 against the US dollar, compared to 93.025 in the previous session, according to Investing.com data. This marks a gain of about 0.24 per cent for the domestic currency, although intraday volatility persisted.

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FII inflows, lower crude boost sentiment

The rupee also found support from foreign institutional investor (FII) inflows. NSE data showed that FIIs turned net buyers on Thursday, purchasing equities worth Rs 382.36 crore in the capital markets segment. This improved risk appetite towards emerging markets, including India.

At the same time, softer crude oil prices added to the positive bias. Brent crude continued to trade below the $100 per barrel mark amid uncertainty over peace talks in West Asia. Lower oil prices typically support the rupee by easing pressure on India’s import bill and current account.

Upside capped amid global uncertainties

Analysts say that even though there are some positive signs, the rupee may not make a big move in one direction because of ongoing geopolitical risks and unstable global markets.

Amit Pabari said, “As long as geopolitical uncertainty lingers, the rupee is unlikely to break into a strong trend. For now, USD/INR is expected to find support in the 92.20–92.50 zone, while on the upside, a gradual move towards 93.50–94.00 remains likely.”

Range-bound trade likely in near term

Manoj Kumar Jain said, “We expect the rupee to remain volatile in today’s session amid volatility in the dollar index, domestic equity markets and geopolitical tensions. The USD/INR pair could trade in the range of 92.70–93.80.”\

USD vs INR: Past performance

Technical view: Mixed indicators, resistance at higher levels

On the technical front, the USD/INR April 28 futures contract is witnessing profit booking after recent moves. The pair is trading above its moving average support near 92.96, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above the 50 mark, indicating underlying strength.

However, Manoj Kumar Jain added, “MACD is showing a negative crossover on the daily charts, which suggests resistance at higher levels.”

He further said, “As per the charts, support is seen at 93.08–92.70, while resistance is placed at 93.55–93.80. The pair is expected to trade in the 92.70–93.80 range. We suggest waiting for corrective dips before initiating fresh long positions.”

Overall, the rupee is likely to remain range-bound with a mild positive bias, tracking oil prices, FII flows, and global cues through the session.