Tariff uncertainties to keep gold prices in India between Rs 87-90K range in H1-2025: ICICI Bank Global Markets

US tariff uncertainties are likely to push gold prices to Rs 87,000- Rs 90,000 in the first half of the calendar year 2025 (January- June), according to a report by ICICI Bank Global Markets.

Currently, the gold prices are at around Rs 83,410 per 10 grams for 22-carat and Rs 90,990 per 10 grams for 24-carat, publicly available data showed.

The report added that the uncertainties arising due to the tariffs will ensure the investment-related demand for gold is in place.

Beginning on April 2, the Trump administration intends to implement reciprocal tariffs on trading partners as part of the "Fair and Reciprocal Plan".

In India, the local gold prices rose by 4 per cent in the past month, reflecting the global market trend and an appreciation of 2 per cent in rupee terms against the US dollar.

"Going forward, local gold prices are expected to trade with an upside bias in the INR 87,000 per ten grams to Rs 90,000 per ten grams range in 1H2025 and moving to the Rs 94,000 per ten grams to the Rs 96,000 per ten grams range in 2H2025," the report added.

The report anticipated that the gold prices in the global markets will be in the range of USD 3200 per ounce to USD 3400 per ounce level by December 2025.

Additionally, the US Federal Reserve's potential decision to lower interest rates in 2025 and 2026 could make gold more attractive, as lower US yields may support gold demand, the report added.

Central banks may also continue to diversify their reserves by holding more gold, which could keep prices steady for the long term, as per the report.

"Elevated levels of gold prices appear to be weighing on jewellery demand, which worked to pull gold imports to their lowest level in the past 11 months, at USD 2.3bn, reflecting a 14 per cent MoM decline and a 63 per cent YoY decline. Demand should pick up, responding to the festive related seasonal demand that tends to take place," the report added.

However, gold fund flows into local ETFs still remain fairly robust, as the World Gold Council (WGC) has reported. Gold ETFs recorded inflows to the tune of Rs 19.8bn in February 2025 that were above the average net inflow of Rs 14.8bn recorded in the preceding nine months.