Oil Prices boil after Trump statement – Will Brent crude rise further?

Brent crude oil prices rose sharply on Thursday as concerns mounted over supply disruptions from the Middle East following US military actions in Iran.

Brent crude was trading at USD 106.10 per barrel, up 4.88 per cent or USD 4.94 from the previous close. Over the past month, prices have climbed 39.19 per cent, an increase of USD 29.85 since the conflict began, signalling sustained upward pressure on global oil markets.

US Military Action in Iran

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US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that American forces had nearly completed their objectives in Iran, but he did not provide a timeline for ending the conflict.

In a televised address, Trump said, "I can say tonight that we are on track to complete all of America's military objectives shortly, very shortly. We're going to hit them extremely hard over the next two to three weeks. We're going to bring them back to the Stone Age where they belong."

Trump highlighted that US operations over the past five weeks had inflicted major losses on Iran’s military. "Tonight, Iran's navy is gone. Their air force is in ruins. Their leaders, most of them terrorist regimes, are now dead," he said. He added that Iran’s command and control capabilities and missile program had been "dramatically curtailed."

Operation Epic Fury and Strategic Targets

Trump detailed the progress of Operation Epic Fury, claiming that US forces had destroyed key military and nuclear infrastructure in Iran. "The nuclear sites that we obliterated with the B2 bombers have been hit so hard that it would take months to get near the nuclear dust. And we have it under intense satellite surveillance and control," he said.

The president also cited past actions, including the killing of General Qassem Soleimani and the termination of the Iran nuclear deal signed under former President Barack Obama.

"Obama gave them 1.7 billion dollars in cash... They laughed at our president and went on with their mission to have a nuclear bomb. I was so honoured to terminate that terrible deal," Trump said.

He warned that further US strikes on Iran’s energy and oil infrastructure could be carried out if negotiations failed.

Impact on Oil and Energy Markets

The military conflict has triggered sharp rises in crude oil prices globally. The closure and disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, a major oil shipping route, have heightened supply concerns. Traders and analysts said that any disruption along this key passage could restrict exports from Iran and other regional producers, putting upward pressure on oil prices.

Trump acknowledged the impact on US gasoline prices, attributing the rise to Iranian attacks on commercial tankers. "This short-term increase has been entirely the result of the Iranian regime launching deranged terror attacks against commercial oil tankers of neighbouring countries that have nothing to do with the conflict," he said.

Will Crude Oil Prices Keep Rising?

Major financial institutions have raised their short-term Brent crude price targets. Goldman Sachs now expects Brent to average above USD 100 in the current period. Some analysts say prices could reach USD 150 or even USD 200 if a full-scale blockade occurs, reflecting a supply-driven rally.

Brent recently crossed long-term resistance near USD 91–USD 93, peaking around USD 119.50. Technical indicators suggest the oil is in a short-term uptrend, with strong support at lower levels, indicating potential for further gains while geopolitical tensions remain.

Despite the recent spike, some analysts expect lower prices in the long term. They forecast Brent could average USD 60–USD 64 in 2026, citing a possible global oil surplus of up to 4 million barrels per day as non-OPEC supply may exceed demand.

US Energy Independence

Trump emphasised that the United States does not rely on oil imports from the Middle East. "Because of our drill baby drill program, America has plenty of gas. We are number one producer of oil and gas on the planet," he said.

He added that the Strait of Hormuz, though temporarily affected, would eventually reopen. "Should this conflict be over, the strait will open up naturally. Gas prices will rapidly come back down. Stock prices will rapidly go back up," Trump said.

The US has increased production from domestic sources and from Venezuela, Trump said, reducing dependence on Middle Eastern crude and insulating the country from long-term global supply shocks.

Global Energy Security

Trump framed the military operation as part of a broader strategy to secure global energy supplies and prevent Iran from threatening the free world with nuclear weapons. "We are systematically dismantling the regime's ability to threaten America or project power outside of its borders.

That means eliminating Iran's navy, which is now absolutely destroyed, hurting their air force and their missile program at levels never seen before, and annihilating their defence industrial base," he said.

He also called on oil-dependent nations to take responsibility for securing supply routes while the US provides support. This includes ensuring the free flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz.

Support for US Troops and Allies

Trump paid tribute to American soldiers who lost their lives in the conflict. "As we celebrate this progress, we think especially of the 13 American warriors who have laid down their lives in this fight to prevent our children from ever having to face a nuclear Iran," he said.

He also acknowledged Middle Eastern allies, including Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain, saying, "They've been great, and we will not let them get hurt or fail in any way, shape, or form."