New Year Special: After stellar returns in 2025, what gold & silver may deliver in 2026—Experts share outlook

The year 2025 turned out to be historic for the bullion market, with gold and silver delivering record-breaking rallies, especially from the festive season in October to the wedding season in December. Market analysts confirm that 2025 has been the best year for gold and silver in the last 46 years, driven by global economic shifts, geopolitical tensions, and massive investor participation.

Silver smashes global and domestic records

Silver witnessed an unprecedented rally this year. In the global market, silver touched a record high of $82.67 per troy ounce, delivering a stunning 145% return on Comex. Silver prices surged by $52 globally, while in December alone, silver became costlier by nearly $22 per troy ounce.

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On the domestic front, silver outperformed expectations with a massive 175 per cent return. Prices on MCX surged by Rs 1,72,000 in 2025, making it one of the most rewarding years for silver investors.

This has now raised an important question for investors that— Will silver maintain the same momentum in 2026 as it did in 2025?

Experts silver outlook for 2026

In a special discussion with Mrituenjay Kumar Jha, Commodity Editor, Zee Business, industry leaders shared deep insights on silver’s extraordinary performance and its roadmap for 2026.

“Price Discovery System Has Collapsed” — Surendra Mehta, Secretary, IBJA

According to Mehta, the silver market is failing to discover its fair price. Based on Comex levels, silver should be around Rs 2,19,000 whereas Shanghai market closed $3 higher and Indian silver is trading $5–$5.5 higher than Comex

He stated that the global arbitrage system has collapsed, leading to distorted price discovery. Until price discovery stabilizes, transparent inter-price trading cannot resume.

Adding to the uncertainty, from January 1, China plans to stop exporting silver and will only import it, which could significantly impact global supply and pricing dynamics.

Why are Indian silver prices rising?

Surendra Mehta explained that when global buyers expect better returns or higher realisations in China, they prefer sourcing silver there instead of India. This imbalance is preventing Indian markets from discovering accurate prices.

He warned that when free trade is restricted, prices either skyrocket or crash sharply. Therefore, the first 10–15 days of January will be crucial to understanding silver’s actual direction for 2026.

According to Mehta: A 35 per cent return in 2026 would still be an excellent outcome and the white metal may move in the $95–$100 range, but not beyond. However, if China reacts aggressively, silver could fall to $55.

“Repeating 175 per cent Return Is Difficult” — Avinash Gupta, VC, GJC

Avinash Gupta, VC, GJC said the extraordinary 175 per cent silver return in 2025 shocked the market. Expecting the same sharp rally in 2026 is highly unlikely. He believes silver may deliver 25–30 per cent upside in 2026, but not more.

Retail participation and industrial demand played a big role

According to Anurag Rastogi, Mateshwari Gold, 2025 was different because ordinary consumers actively invested in silver, unlike earlier years.

Along with this:

• Industrial consumption surged
• Several countries started stockpiling silver

These factors collectively strengthened the bull run.

Why did silver create history in 2025?

Here are some factor which influenced white metal prices this year:

1. Trump’s global tariff announcement in April triggered the rally
2. US Fed rate cut signals provided strong support
3. Geopolitical tensions boosted safe-haven demand
4. Heavy ETF inflows strengthened sentiment
5. Weak US Dollar increased gold’s appeal
6. Weak Rupee supported domestic prices
7. Strong industrial demand
8. Green energy & EV push, along with supply constraints
9. Rising demand from the solar sector
10. Renewable capacity expected to rise 50 per cent by 2030

Silver’s journey through 2025

• This year: 175 per cent return
• 1-year return: 170 per cent

Key price milestones silver has touched:

• January 2, 2025: $30 per troy ounce
• August 28, 2025: $40 per troy ounce
• October 9, 2025: $50 per troy ounce
• December 5, 2025: $60 per troy ounce
• December 26, 2025: $82 per troy ounce

Is it the right time to buy silver?

According to Surendra Mehta:Investors should wait till January 15, avoid rushing, and take decisions after analysing the market.

According to Avinash Gupta: Anyone buying at current levels should be prepared to absorb a 15–17% downside risk, because risk is currently high.

Gold also delivered a historic rally

Gold too delivered exceptional gains in 2025.

• June 2025: Rs 99,999 on MCX
• October 17: All-time high of Rs 1,32,573
• December 29: Lifetime high of Rs 1,39,808
• Overall, gold saw an upward movement of nearly Rs 40,000 this year.