Is Kalyan Jewellers stealing Titan’s shine in India’s gold rush?

Shares of Titan Co. Ltd dropped 3 per cent in the last two trading sessions after the company posted a below-par business update for the June 2025 quarter.

Titan Q1 Earnings

Titan’s domestic jewellery segment grew 18 per cent year-on-year, led by its flagship brands—Tanishq, Mia, and Zoya. However, that was below JM Financial’s expectations of a 22 per cent rise and underwhelming given the sharp 30 per cent surge in gold prices and a low base from the year-ago period.

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The quarter wasn’t short of key consumption triggers. Akshaya Tritiya, wedding dates and a low base from Q1FY25 offered a strong backdrop for jewellery sales. However, Titan said the mid-May to mid-June gold rally dampened consumer enthusiasm, leading to a preference for lower-karat, lightweight jewellery.

Kalyan Jewellers Q1 Earnings

In contrast, Kalyan Jewellers shone brighter. The company posted a 31 per cent jump in India revenue, driven by robust festival and wedding season demand. Same-store sales growth stood at 18 per cent, nearly in line with Titan’s total jewellery business growth, despite Kalyan’s smaller base.

According to ICICI Securities, Kalyan is expected to maintain a growth premium over Titan throughout FY26, with a projected jewellery revenue CAGR of 30 per cent between FY25 and FY27, compared to Titan’s 19 per cent.

Brokerages have flagged near-term risks for Titan, including rising competition, the threat of lab-grown diamonds, and margin pressures. Emkay Global has maintained a ‘Reduce’ rating on Titan stock with a target price of Rs 3,350, citing deteriorating return ratios and a potential drag on studded jewellery sales.

What investors should watch

Margins are likely to remain under scrutiny. JM Financial expects Titan’s standalone jewellery EBIT margin at around 11 per cent (excluding bullion sales), about 20 basis points lower year-on-year.

While Titan continues to lead in market share and brand recall, analysts believe smaller, more nimble players like Kalyan are benefiting from aggressive expansion, better festive play and evolving consumer preferences, especially in high-ticket, low-volume purchases. Investors can look out for these factors:

• Consumer sentiment & gold volatility: Further price hikes or sharp dips could curb spending.

• Store expansion pace: Essential for Kalyan’s growth, but margin-sensitive.

• Festive season performance: Crucial for both, especially Titan’s premium segments and Kalyan’s core and digital formats.