How US–Israel–Iran war are hitting Dubai’s jewelry market — And what it means for India’s gold & silver investors

Dubai’s gold and jewellery market is showing a slowdown amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The ongoing conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran has impacted both local and international trading activities. Dubai continues to be a major hub for the global gold and jewellery business.

Chandra Prakash Siro, Managing Director of Siroya Jewellers and Vice-Chairman of Dubai Gold and Jewellery Group, said, “The Dubai jewellery market is open and functioning. Shops are operating normally. However, the overall business is low. Around 80 to 90 per cent of the retail market depends on tourist traffic. With fewer tourists, jewellery sales have declined sharply.”

Tourist slowdown hits demand, exports fall 80-90%

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He added that gold and diamond purchases have slowed. “Residents are cautious but not panicked. Shops remain open, and people are making purchases. With Ramadan ongoing and Eid approaching, local buyers are active, but international buyers are fewer due to travel restrictions. This is putting pressure on wholesale sales.”

Dubai’s wholesale market, which serves as a key global supply chain hub, is also affected. Siro said, “International buyers are visiting less frequently. The cost of holding gold remains unchanged. Bullion sales are better than jewellery. Currently, bullion is available at a discount of USD 10 to USD 20 per ounce, which is normal.”

He added, “Compared to normal days, jewellery exports from Dubai have dropped 80 to 90 per cent. Imports from India, Singapore, Malaysia, Turkey, and Italy have also slowed. Wholesale business is low. Bullion continues to be exported to countries such as Switzerland and the UK.”

Regarding security, he confirmed, “Dubai authorities are managing the situation effectively. Meetings with wholesalers and traders have been conducted. Short-term business is affected, but the long-term impact is expected to be limited. Once flights and tourist traffic resume, business should return to normal.”

Footfall at Dubai’s Gold Souk has declined. Siro said, “Footfall is lower, but shops are open. Local buyers are active, and some tourists have visited despite the situation.”

Indian Gold Market

The slowdown in Dubai is influencing the Indian market. Market expert Dinesh Chomani said, “After repeated attacks in the international market last week, sentiment weakened. Typically, geopolitical tension triggers a rise in gold prices. Currently, the USD 5,000 level has broken, and prices could reach USD 4,850 in the short term. The Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting may also impact gold prices.”

Chomani advised, “Gold around Rs 155,000 per 10 grams can be bought. Place a stop-loss at Rs 157,000 with a target of Rs 154,500. Short-term volatility is expected due to the dollar index and Fed announcements.”

Silver is also under pressure. Chomani said, “Silver has fallen from Rs 68,000 to Rs 48,000. Buying around Rs 50,500 is suggested, with a stop-loss at Rs 57,000.”

Commodities like copper and aluminium are experiencing short-term selling pressure. Copper is unlikely to sustain above USD 1,220 per ton. Aluminium is trading between USD 338 and USD 347 per ton, with a long-term stop-loss at USD 329.

Commodities expert Manoj Kumar Jain said, “We are experiencing very high price volatility in both precious metals, but silver prices could hold their support level of USD 68.00 per troy ounce and gold prices could also hold their support level of USD 4,884 per troy ounce on a closing basis this week.”

He added, “We expect gold and silver prices to remain volatile this week amid volatility in the dollar index, FOMC policy meetings, and the US-Iran war. Gold has support at USD 4,964-4,920 and resistance at USD 5,055-5,084 per troy ounce. Silver has support at USD 78.00-74.40, while resistance is at USD 84.00-86.40 per troy ounce in today’s session.”

“At MCX, gold has support at Rs 154,000-152,800 and resistance at Rs 156,600-158,000, while silver has support at Rs 251,500-247,700 and resistance at Rs 261,600-266,000. Traders should trade within the given ranges for intraday, ahead of the Fed meetings. Long-term investors can accumulate in dips through SIP mode,” Jain said.

Market Outlook

Dubai’s gold market faces short-term pressure due to reduced tourism and geopolitical tensions. Jewellery sales are down 80 to 90 per cent compared to normal levels. Wholesale business is slow, but bullion trading remains stable and continues to key export markets.

In India, the gold and silver markets are under pressure. Investors can consider buying gold at Rs 155,000 per 10 grams and silver around Rs 50,500 with proper stop-loss levels. Short-term selling pressure is visible in copper and aluminium.

Markets in Dubai and India are expected to stabilise once international trade and travel normalise. Strategic buying and close monitoring of global developments are recommended.

The Zee Business Gold Summit on March 27 in Mumbai will provide insights into market strategies and investment opportunities. Experts will discuss trading strategies, timing, and risk management for gold and other precious metals.