Gold, silver to stay bullish in 2026 despite sharp swings? Report outlines what could fuel or hurt the rally

India’s precious metals market may be headed into another eventful year, with a new report suggesting that both gold and silver could extend their rally into 2026, even as global financial conditions turn more challenging. After a spectacular run in 2025 - where gold surged nearly 60 per cent year-to-date - analysts at Axis Mutual Fund say the metal is likely to retain a positive bias next year on the back of safe-haven demand, central-bank buying and persistent geopolitical uncertainty. The report, however, cautions that sharp corrections and bouts of volatility are likely, as global interest rates, currency movements and macro data continue to swing.

Why gold may stay firm in 2026?

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Axis Mutual Fund notes that the forces supporting gold this year remain largely intact:

• Safe-haven flows remain elevated amid political uncertainty, ongoing conflicts and uneven global growth.
• Retail demand is robust, with three straight quarters of 300-tonne-plus bar and coin purchases.

Despite the supportive backdrop, the firm flags several factors that could temporarily weaken gold:

• A stronger US dollar
• A rise in real yields
• Firmer global growth reducing safe-haven preference
• A more hawkish US policy stance

These conditions, it notes, may trigger pullbacks even if the overall trend remains positive.

Silver is also expected to gain, but its sharp run-up has raised some valuation concerns. Prices are hovering around $58 an ounce, and the metal is set to get support in 2026 from strong industrial demand—especially from solar, electric vehicles and electronics. Even so, analysts point to a couple of clear risks. Stretched prices could trigger profit-taking and lead to ETF outflows. And if copper prices weaken, it could affect silver’s supply dynamics, since much of the world’s silver is produced as a by-product of copper, lead and zinc mining. Supply isn’t very responsive to price changes either, which means any dip in demand could drive sharper swings.