Gold, Silver Prices: Buy, Sell or Hold as Trump signals war may end soon? Motilal Oswal explains

Gold and silver prices witnessed fresh volatility on March 10 as geopolitical developments in the Middle East and comments from United States President Donald Trump triggered a shift in global market sentiment. On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold was trading at Rs 1,63,135 while silver surged to Rs 2,78,228 around 8:45 pm, reflecting renewed interest in precious metals amid uncertainty over the ongoing US-Israel conflict with Iran.

The latest move in precious metals comes after Trump suggested that the war with Iran could end “very soon”, raising hopes of de-escalation in the region and easing fears of prolonged disruption to global oil supplies. Gold and silver have always been the go-to safe havens when global tensions spike. Right now, though, the market’s caught between two big drivers: ongoing geopolitical risks and the chance that dropping oil prices might ease inflation everywhere. Motilal Oswal Financial Services points out that this tug-of-war has kept bullion prices bouncing around lately. Investors are watching the Middle East and waiting for new US economic numbers, hoping for some direction.

Gold trades in a wide range amid inflation concerns

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Gold prices have bounced around a lot this week. Energy costs keep climbing, and that’s got people worried that inflation will hang around longer than anyone wants. When oil goes up, folks start thinking inflation’s not going away anytime soon. That usually pushes central banks to hold interest rates higher for longer.

According to Motilal Oswal, this dynamic has been one of the key reasons behind the recent volatility in bullion markets. Investors are trying to assess whether geopolitical tensions will continue to drive energy prices higher or whether diplomatic developments could ease supply fears.

Despite intermittent rallies, gold has largely stayed within a $5,000–$5,200 range internationally, indicating that traders are cautious about taking aggressive positions until there is greater clarity on both inflation trends and central bank policy.

Silver rebounds as sentiment improves

Silver showed stronger gains during the early trading session on Tuesday, rebounding sharply as market sentiment improved following signals of possible de-escalation in the Middle East conflict.

Motilal Oswal said that improving sentiment has prompted some investors to rotate funds from energy markets back into precious metals. Silver’s been riding this wave, too. It moves faster than gold when the market gets jumpy. People turn to silver when they’re nervous - it’s a safe haven but it’s also got a big role in industry. That mix makes silver extra sensitive to any shifts in how people see the global economy.

Trump signals war could end soon

The latest move in bullion prices was also influenced by comments from US President Donald Trump, who suggested that the conflict involving Iran could end in the near future.

Trump said the war was likely to be over “very soon” after describing the past phase of hostilities as a “short-term excursion”.

The conflict began on February 28, and since then, joint US-Israeli forces have hit thousands of targets - at least, that’s what reports say.

While all this is happening, Trump didn’t hold back. He warned Iran that if they mess with global oil supplies by blocking the Strait of Hormuz, they’ll get hit even harder. That strait isn’t just any channel; it’s basically the main highway for the world’s oil.

Iran’s playing it careful. Officials say they’ll decide when the fighting stops. Until then, they’re striking back across the region and going after ships passing through that same vital waterway.

With all this going on, markets are jumpy. Trouble in the Strait of Hormuz usually means oil prices shoot up, and nobody likes that uncertainty.

Oil prices and the dollar driving bullion markets

Movements in oil prices and the US dollar have been key drivers for gold and silver in recent sessions. A weaker US dollar has also played a role. When the dollar falls, gold and silver priced in the greenback become cheaper for buyers using other currencies, often increasing global demand.

Motilal Oswal noted that these cross-currents have created significant volatility in bullion prices.

What should investors do now?

Motilal Oswal says investors need to stay cautious, especially when precious metals like gold and silver spike during times of geopolitical tension. Don’t just jump in when prices run up. Instead, the firm suggests picking up gold or silver on dips. Both metals are still hovering near record highs, so it pays to be patient and add to your position slowly, using a structured strategy. That way, you ride out some of the market’s wild swings and still get the benefits of these safe-haven assets. They also point out that precious metals work best when they make up about 5–15% of your overall portfolio. That’s enough to help protect you against inflation and global uncertainty, but not so much that you’re left stressing over every price move.

Key global data to watch next

Market participants are now turning their attention to several important US economic indicators that could influence bullion prices in the coming days.

Key data points include the US consumer price index (CPI), GDP figures and durable goods orders, all of which can provide clues about the future direction of inflation and interest rates.

Any sign that inflation is easing could reduce the likelihood of aggressive rate hikes by major central banks, which would generally support non-yielding assets such as gold.

Outlook for gold and silver

Motilal Oswal believes that gold and silver are likely to remain volatile in the near term, with prices reacting quickly to geopolitical developments, oil market moves and incoming US economic data.