Gold, silver prices soar amid Iran–Israel tensions: Is it time to buy, sell or stay put?

Gold and silver prices settled higher in domestic and international markets on Friday amid safe-haven buying triggered by escalating geopolitical tensions and weakness in the US equity markets. Investors shifted towards precious metals as uncertainty increased in global financial markets.

In the international market, gold April futures settled at USD 5,267.20 per troy ounce, up 1.03 per cent. Silver May futures ended at USD 93.636 per troy ounce, gaining 6.51 per cent.

In the domestic market, gold April futures settled at Rs 1,62,104 per 10 grams, rising 1.50 per cent. Silver May futures ended at Rs 2,82,644 per kilogram, up 5.48 per cent.

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Prices extend gains on Monday

On Monday, gold and silver futures continued to trade higher in the domestic market amid sustained safe-haven demand. Gold 2 April futures were trading at Rs 1,67,185 per 10 grams, up Rs 5,081 or 3.13 per cent. Silver 5 March futures were trading at Rs 2,78,644 per kilogram, higher by Rs 3,646 or 1.33 per cent.

The gains indicate continued investor interest in bullion as global uncertainty persists. Market participants remained cautious and tracked developments in the Middle East and global financial markets.

Geopolitical tensions support bullion

Precious metals witnessed high volatility after military action by the United States and Israel on Iran over the weekend. Iran reportedly retaliated by firing more than 400 missiles at US army bases in the Middle East.

The rising tensions have raised concerns about a prolonged conflict in the region. Such developments typically increase demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver. Investors tend to reduce exposure to riskier assets such as equities during periods of conflict and move funds into bullion.

Weakness in the US equity markets also supported the prices of precious metals during the session.

Dollar, bond yields and crypto weakness

The dollar index plunged following weaker-than-expected US economic data. At the same time, US 10-year bond yields slipped below 4.0 per cent.

A softer dollar makes gold cheaper for holders of other currencies, while lower bond yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold and silver. These factors supported bullion prices.

Crypto markets also showed weakness, which may further divert flows towards traditional safe-haven assets in the coming sessions.

Expert view and technical levels

Manoj Kumar Jain, commodities expert, said, “Gold and silver gained in a highly volatile session amid geopolitical tensions and sell-off in the US equity markets. Safe-haven buying supported both precious metals.”

He added, “We are experiencing very high price volatility in both precious metals, but silver prices could hold their support level of USD 84.00 per troy ounce and gold prices could also hold their support level of USD 5,122 per troy ounce on a closing basis this week.”

According to Jain, the trend is expected to remain volatile this week amid fluctuations in the dollar index, the ongoing US-Iran conflict and ahead of key US job data.

On the technical front, he said gold has support at USD 5,220–5,164 per troy ounce, while resistance is seen at USD 5,340–5,420 per troy ounce in the international market. Silver has support at USD 90.00–86.80 per troy ounce and resistance at USD 98.00–102.00 per troy ounce in the current session.

On the Multi Commodity Exchange, gold has support at Rs 1,60,600–1,58,800 and resistance at Rs 1,64,400–1,67,000. Silver has support at Rs 2,78,000–2,71,000 and resistance at Rs 2,92,000–3,04,000.

Jain suggested a buy-on-dips strategy. “We suggest buying gold above Rs 1,63,300 with a stop loss below Rs 1,60,600 for the targets of Rs 1,65,000–1,67,000,” he said.

He further said, “We also suggest buying silver above Rs 2,85,500 with a stop loss below Rs 2,78,000 for the targets of Rs 2,89,800–2,96,000.”

Market participants are expected to track further developments in the Middle East, movement in the dollar index and upcoming US economic data for fresh direction in prices.