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The Indian market is under close watch as the 2026 annual rebalancing of commodity indices begins, running from January 8 to 14, 2026. The main indices involved are the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) and the S&P GSCI.
Experts said the rebalancing could trigger significant fund outflows from gold and silver, with gold estimated to see outflows of about $6.8 billion and silver between $6.8 and $7 billion.
The reduction in index weightings is putting pressure on major metal producers. Hindustan Zinc, India’s largest silver producer, rose 25 per cent last month but fell 5 per cent today.
Market expert Anil Singhvi noted, “Gold, which reached a lifetime high of Rs 1,40,465 on December 26, has since dropped Rs 2,500. Silver, after touching an intraday high of Rs 59,692, is down about Rs 8,000. If silver closes above Rs 25,500, it could indicate a new breakout despite high volatility.”
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have trimmed long positions in index futures to around 5 per cent and sold over Rs 4,000 crore in stock indices and cash futures over three days.
Globally, the S&P 500 fell for the third consecutive day. The US Dollar Index rose to about 98.5, adding pressure on commodities including gold and silver, while the Indian market remained resilient with the rupee gaining 29 paise.
Precious metals saw profit-booking ahead of the US nonfarm payroll report, as investors weighed mixed US economic data and geopolitical tensions. US job vacancies fell more than expected in November, and ADP data showed private payrolls rose less than forecast in December.
Geopolitical developments included US plans to control Venezuelan petroleum sales, detention of Venezuela-linked vessels, and discussions about Greenland.
Gold rebounded after touching $4,500, with support at $4,350 and resistance at $4,550. Silver formed a double top at $82.6, with potential upside to $84 and $88.5, according to Augmont’s Dr Renisha Chainani.