Gold prices up 1%, silver surges 4% on MCX — Should investors buy the rally or wait for dips?

Gold and silver futures surged in early trade on Monday, extending last week’s gains amid continued safe-haven buying and heightened geopolitical tensions.

Silver futures opened at Rs 2,63,061.00, up Rs 10,117 or about 4 per cent, from the previous close of Rs 2,52,944.00. Gold futures opened at Rs 1,58,458.00 compared with the previous close of Rs 1,56,876.00, up Rs 1,582 or around 1 per cent.

Strong Settlement in International Markets

Add Zee Business as a Preferred Source

The sharp move in domestic prices followed a strong settlement in international markets on Friday. Gold April futures contract settled at USD 5,080.90 per troy ounce, up 1.67 per cent, while silver March futures contract ended at USD 82.343 per troy ounce, gaining 6.07 per cent.

In the domestic market, gold April futures settled at Rs 1,56,876 per 10 grams, up 1.33 per cent, and silver March futures ended at Rs 2,52,944 per kilogram, up 4.79 per cent.

Safe-Haven Buying Amid Global Uncertainty

Market participants said precious metals witnessed strong buying interest last week amid rising uncertainty in global financial markets. Escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, along with developments related to US trade tariffs, supported safe-haven demand.

Commodities expert Manoj Kumar Jain said, “Gold and silver gained last week amid safe-haven buying due to US-Iran tensions and the US Supreme Court ruling against Trump tariffs. We are experiencing very high price volatility in both precious metals.”

Impact of US-Iran Tensions and Tariffs

He said the US President has given 10–15 days to Iran to make a deal, which has increased tensions in the Middle East. China has opposed any kind of military action by the US against Iran, adding to geopolitical uncertainty. According to Jain, such developments have supported prices of gold and silver as investors shifted towards safer assets.

He further said the US Supreme Court upheld a lower court’s decision on Trump tariffs with a 6-3 majority. However, the US later imposed global tariffs of 15 per cent after the decision, which increased uncertainty in global financial markets and further supported precious metal prices.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

“Gold and silver show very high price volatility and gained last week amid safe-haven buying. Silver prices could hold support at USD 63.90 per troy ounce and gold prices could also hold support at USD 4,770 per troy ounce on a closing basis this week,” Jain said.

He added that volatility in the dollar index, ongoing US-Iran tensions and the reopening of Chinese markets after week-long holidays are likely to keep bullion prices volatile in the near term.

On the international front, Jain said gold has immediate support at USD 5,055–5,000 per troy ounce and resistance at USD 5,122–5,164 per troy ounce in the current session. Silver has support at USD 80.00–76.20 per troy ounce, while resistance is seen at USD 84.80–88.00 per troy ounce.

In the domestic market on MCX, he said gold is having support at Rs 1,54,400–1,53,150 and resistance at Rs 1,59,100–1,60,600. Silver has support at Rs 2,48,800–2,42,000 and resistance at Rs 2,57,700–2,63,620.

Trading Strategy for Investors

“We suggest buying gold on dips around Rs 1,55,500–1,54,400 with a stop loss of Rs 1,52,800 for the target of Rs 1,59,100–1,60,000. We also suggest buying silver around Rs 2,48,800–2,44,000 with a stop loss below Rs 2,38,000 for the target of Rs 2,58,000–2,62,000,” Jain said.

Overall, bullion prices remained firm in early trade on Monday after last week’s sharp rally. Analysts expect continued volatility in the near term amid geopolitical developments and movement in global financial markets.