Gold prices may hit Rs 1 lakh in H2 2025 amid strong investment demand: Report

Gold prices in India are expected to maintain an upward trajectory in the second half of 2025 and may touch the symbolic Rs 1,00,000 mark per 10 grams, according to a new report by ICICI Bank Global Markets, reported by ANI.

While global gold prices have remained relatively flat in recent months, India has bucked the trend. Domestic gold prices grew by 0.6 per cent in June, supported in part by a slight 0.2 per cent depreciation of the rupee.

Rs 1 lakh per 10 grams in sight?

“Local gold prices are expected to continue trading with an upside bias moving from a near-term range of Rs 96,500 to Rs 98,500 per ten grams to Rs 98,500 per ten grams to the Rs 100,000 per ten grams range in H2 2025,” the report noted.

The psychological Rs 1 lakh mark is seen as a key level, and the current pace of appreciation, driven by investment-related demand, could bring prices closer to that level in the coming months.

Also Read:Gold and Silver Prices Today, July 4, 2025: Yellow metal gains to Rs 97,100, Silver climbs to Rs 1,07,000 

Imports dip, but ETF inflows pick up

Despite the price rise, data indicates that gold demand is starting to show signs of fatigue. Gold imports dropped from $3.1 billion in April to $2.5 billion in May. However, investment interest in gold remained strong during the same period.

As per data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI), May saw a net inflow of Rs 2.92 billion into gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) after two straight months of outflows, underlining robust investment demand in domestic markets. Investor interest appears to be constant globally.

Also Read:Is gold’s bull run over? Why Motilal Oswal signals pause, but JP Morgan sees more upside 

SPDR Gold ETF holdings rose from 930 tonnes as at June 1 to 948 tonnes by July 1, 2025. Speculative net long positions also rose by about 13,000 lots in recent times-an indication of further bullish optimism. 

The gold rally has paused, but prices remain a cool 28 per cent up YTD. The slight loss in heat has come as safe-haven demand takes a bit of a dip with ameliorating risk sentiment internationally. 

Ceasefire and trade talks calm markets

An important factor in giving the calm to gold prices has been the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, which helped dive market confidence and lessen urgency to rush into safe-haven assets such as gold.

“The upshot is that the easing in geopolitical tensions and expectations that trade-war 2.0 could ease in magnitude have worked to limit further sharp upside emerging in gold prices,” the report added.

Markets have also responded positively to the US securing trade agreements with countries like the UK and Vietnam, with negotiations progressing with Japan, India, and the EU. A tentative framework for a deal between the US and China is also in place, with a final agreement expected by August.

Investment demand driving prices, not jewellery

While jewellery demand appears to be softening, the report underlines that gold prices are currently being supported mainly by investment-related demand. “Investment-related demand has continued to drive gold prices as jewellery demand has witnessed softness,” the report stated.

(With inputs from ANI)