Gold price slips ahead of Donald Trump’s White House address; right time to buy?

Gold prices eased on Monday, giving up part of their recent gains as fresh geopolitical signals and macro pressures pulled the market in opposite directions. After a brief recovery from March’s sharp fall, bullion came under renewed pressure when Donald Trump warned that the US could “hit” Iran very hard within the next two to three weeks, dampening hopes of any near-term de-escalation.

According to a report by Motilal Oswal Financial Services, the shift in tone unsettled markets that were earlier leaning towards a diplomatic outcome. At the same time, a stronger US dollar and concerns over sticky inflation kept gold’s upside in check, leaving prices range-bound despite the geopolitical risk.

As of 2:15 pm on MCX, gold was trading at Rs 1,51,028, while silver stood at Rs 2,34,220.

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What changed for gold this week?

Gold had started to recover after its March correction, with investors gradually returning to the safe-haven asset. But that momentum did not last long.

The latest warning from Trump - signalling a possible escalation rather than resolution - altered market mood. More importantly, there was little clarity on whether key routes like the Strait of Hormuz would remain unaffected, adding another layer of uncertainty.

Instead of triggering a sharp rally in gold, the development led to cautious positioning, with investors balancing risk against broader economic signals.

Why isn’t gold rising despite geopolitical tension?

Normally, tensions involving Iran would push gold higher. This time, however, other forces are offsetting that support.

The Motilal Oswal report highlights that concerns around energy-driven inflation are back in focus. If crude prices rise due to conflict risks, central banks may have less room to cut rates or may even stay tighter for longer.

That is negative for gold, which does not offer any yield. In such an environment, investors often prefer interest-bearing assets.

Strong dollar continues to cap gains

Another major factor limiting gold’s upside is the strength in the US dollar.

A firm dollar makes gold costlier for overseas buyers, which reduces demand. Recent resilience in the US economy and expectations of prolonged higher rates have supported the greenback, keeping pressure on bullion prices.

So even as global uncertainty rises, money is not flowing into gold as strongly as it typically would.

Tariffs and global trade concerns add to pressure

The report also points to fresh US tariff measures on metals such as steel, aluminium and copper. These steps have added to global trade tensions and contributed to a cautious market environment.

While such developments can sometimes support safe-haven demand, they are also feeding into inflation concerns - again complicating gold’s outlook.

Silver mirrors trend, remains more volatile

Silver, currently at Rs 2,34,220, moved broadly in line with gold but continues to show sharper swings.

Unlike gold, silver is also tied to industrial demand. That means any slowdown concerns in global growth can weigh more heavily on silver, even when geopolitical tensions are high.

What should investors watch now?

Markets are now turning their attention to key economic triggers, including:

• US GDP data
• CPI and PCE inflation readings
• Federal Open Market Committee minutes
• Reserve Bank of India policy decision

These indicators will shape expectations around interest rates and in turn, gold’s direction.

Buy the dip or stay cautious?

In the near term, gold may remain volatile, caught between geopolitical risks and macroeconomic headwinds.

For investors:

• Short term: Expect choppy movement; avoid aggressive bets
• Long term: Gradual buying on dips could make sense, given ongoing global uncertainties