Crude at $111/barrel, only $9 below 2026 peak; why prices are rising and key levels to watch

Global crude oil prices rose nearly 2 per cent on Monday and stayed elevated on Tuesday, as fresh tensions between the US and Iran raised concerns over oil supply disruptions in West Asia.

Brent crude, one of the key global oil benchmarks, touched an intraday high above $111 per barrel around 11:30 AM on April 28. At 12:08 PM, Brent Crude Oil Last Day Financial Futures were trading at $110.07 per barrel, up 1.70 per cent or $1.84.

Why crude oil prices are rising today

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The sharp rise comes as markets react to geopolitical uncertainty after US President Donald Trump expressed dissatisfaction with Iran’s proposal regarding the Strait of Hormuz, saying it failed to address Tehran’s nuclear programme.

Crude prices are now close to levels that typically make governments uncomfortable and consumers nervous, especially for major oil-importing nations like India.

Trump cancelled trip

Trump on Saturday cancelled a planned trip by his envoys, including Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, who were scheduled to meet Iranian leaders in Islamabad.

Posting on Truth Social, Trump said, “I just cancelled the trip of my representatives going to Islamabad, Pakistan, to meet with the Iranians. Too much time wasted on travelling, too much work.”

He added that the US “has all the cards” and urged Tehran to make direct contact if it wanted talks.

The cancellation followed Iranian Foreign Minister Seyyed Abbas Araghchi’s visit to Islamabad for discussions with Pakistani leaders.

Later, in an interview with Fox News, Trump said Iran’s military and industrial capabilities had been significantly damaged and claimed the country’s missile-making factories were hit by nearly 75 per cent.

He also said Iran would not be allowed to develop nuclear weapons and indicated that any future talks would likely happen over the phone rather than through in-person meetings.

These changes made people more worried about long-term instability in West Asia, which led traders to raise their supply risk premiums. On March 9, Brent briefly crossed $119 per barrel, sparking fears of a wider global energy crisis.

So far this year, crude prices have jumped 62.66 per cent. However, on a monthly basis, prices have corrected 4.47 per cent. Brent is now just about $9 away from its 2026 peak.

Why high crude matters for India

Higher crude oil prices are closely watched in India because they directly affect fuel prices, inflation, import bills and household expenses.

India imports more than 80 per cent of its crude oil needs. A sustained rise in global prices can put pressure on the rupee, widen the trade deficit and increase costs for sectors such as aviation, paints, chemicals and logistics.

It can also delay hopes of softer retail fuel prices for consumers.

Expert view and levels to track

Jateen Trivedi of LKP Securities said crude remains in a bullish trend due to the uncertain global environment.

He said the broader setup supports buying on dips, with Rs 9,150 seen as a strong support level.

According to him, if prices approach that zone during the day, traders can consider fresh buying positions with upside targets of Rs 9,300 to Rs 9,350.