After Gold and Silver, Copper set to shine in 2026? Motilal Oswal sees a big upside ahead

Gold and silver have already had a dream run, and many investors are now asking a simple question: has most of the easy money in metals already been made? Gold jumped more than 60 per cent in 2025, while silver shocked the market with gains of over 150 per cent. That momentum has spilled into 2026 as geopolitical tensions, trade worries and volatile currencies continue to push investors towards safe havens. But with gold and silver now trading close to record highs, the spotlight is slowly moving to a less talked-about metal that could be gearing up for its own breakout - copper. According to Motilal Oswal, the red metal is emerging as a compelling play for 2026, supported by structural demand, supply constraints and long-term energy transition themes.

Copper rose around 40 per cent last year, a solid gain that has so far stayed under the radar compared with gold and silver’s explosive run. Often called the backbone of the global economy, copper is no longer just a proxy for construction and manufacturing cycles. Its role has expanded sharply with electrification, renewable energy, electric vehicles and data centres becoming central to global growth plans. With investors hunting for the next metal theme after precious metals, copper is increasingly being viewed as a bridge between cyclical recovery and long-term structural demand.

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Price action shows strength, but volatility remains

On January 22, copper was trading around Rs 1,259.90 per kg on the MCX at 4:45 pm, reflecting the choppy but resilient price action seen in recent weeks. Prices have clawed back part of their recent losses as the dollar softened, helped by lingering geopolitical and trade worries. Still, the demand picture is starting to look less clear. In China - the world’s biggest consumer of copper - import premiums, a key measure of physical demand, have dropped sharply over the past month. This suggests manufacturers are becoming cautious as base metal prices sit near record highs and profit margins come under pressure.

At the same time, copper is facing a short-term supply overhang. Global inventories have risen quickly, with stocks in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses more than doubling since early December. Inventories held in US Comex warehouses have also jumped sharply over the past six months, adding to near-term pressure on prices even as longer-term supply risks remain in place.

This rise in visible stocks has capped rallies and triggered bouts of profit-taking. That said, Motilal Oswal notes that the broader supply picture remains tight. New copper mines take a decade or more to come online, and producers in South America continue to face operational disruptions from labour issues, weather events and political risks.

China and policy signals remain in focus

China continues to set the tone for base metal markets, and copper is no exception. While recent signs of softer spot demand have put some pressure on prices, Beijing is rolling out a coordinated mix of fiscal and financial measures to support domestic consumption and keep growth on track in 2026. China has already met its 2025 GDP growth target, and expectations of higher spending on infrastructure, power grids and clean energy remain strong. These trends support copper’s long-term demand story, even if buying in the near term stays selective and cautious.

Geopolitics and the dollar add to volatility

Copper’s status as a critical mineral has given it a clear geopolitical angle. Talk of possible US trade actions and tariffs has, at times, tightened supply expectations, while delays or uncertainty around policy announcements have triggered sharp pullbacks.

Is copper the ‘new gold’?

Motilal Oswal believes copper’s long-term story remains strong but warns that it is still a cyclical commodity. Demand can weaken quickly during global slowdowns, and prices remain closely tied to China’s consumption trends, inventory movements and geopolitical developments.