65% Gold rally since last Akshaya Tritiya: Where to invest now — ETFs, physical gold or SGBs?

As India gears up to celebrate Akshaya Tritiya on April 19, 2026, the bullion market is witnessing an exceptional run, but with a note of caution. Gold prices are currently hovering around Rs 1,57,045 per 10 grams, delivering a sharp over 65 per cent return since last year’s festival. This marks its strongest annual performance since 2020, when pandemic-led uncertainty pushed prices up by 47.4 per cent.

The rally has been consistent. Since 2018, gold has delivered positive returns every year around the festival, with an average annual gain of more than 25 per cent. Over a longer horizon, gold has risen nearly 435 per cent in the past nine years, underlining its role as a steady wealth compounder.

Silver outperforms with sharp surge

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While gold has remained resilient, silver has clearly outperformed this cycle. Prices have surged from Rs 95,900 per kg a year ago to around Rs 2,54,650 per kg now. This translates into a massive 165 per cent gain.

Analysts said that the big rise in silver prices is because of strong demand from industry, especially from the green energy sectors, and because people buy silver as a safe haven when there is geopolitical tension, like the US-Iran tensions.

Short-term caution despite bullish outlook

Despite the strong momentum, both metals may see a consolidation phase over the next two to three months due to profit booking and cross-asset liquidation.

Ajay Suresh Kedia said, “The rally has been very strong, so some consolidation is natural. Investors should use this phase to accumulate gradually rather than invest in one go.”

12-month outlook remains strong

The long-term outlook for bullion continues to remain positive. Gold is expected to move towards Rs 2,00,000–Rs 2,10,000 per 10 grams, implying an upside of around 32–38 per cent.

Kedia said, “The broader trend is still bullish due to global uncertainties, central bank buying and currency volatility. Any dips should be seen as buying opportunities.”

Silver is also projected to remain strong, with targets in the range of Rs 3,20,000–Rs 3,30,000 per kg, suggesting a further upside of about 34–38 per cent.

Shift from tradition to strategy

Akshaya Tritiya has traditionally been associated with physical gold purchases driven by sentiment. However, investor behaviour is now shifting towards more strategic allocation. The focus is gradually moving from “whether to buy” to “how to buy” gold efficiently.

Physical gold continues to be the most popular gift because of its cultural value. However, it is still not a good investment because of the costs of storing it, making it, and making sure it is pure.

ETFs gain traction amid volatility

Gold ETFs are emerging as a preferred route for many investors. They give you direct access to gold prices without the problems that come with owning gold in person. Their main benefit is that they are liquid, meaning you can trade them at any time, which makes them good for tactical allocation and portfolio rebalancing.

Kedia said, “Investors should prefer Gold ETFs and Silver ETFs through monthly SIPs. This reduces timing risk and helps average out costs in a volatile market.”

SGBs lose some shine in current market

Sovereign Gold Bonds (SGBs) continue to be attractive on paper. They offer 2.5 per cent annual interest along with capital appreciation linked to gold prices. If held till maturity of eight years, capital gains are tax-free.

However, their attractiveness has decreased in the present times. Since there are no fresh issues the investors will have to rely on the secondary market where the liquidity is low and the tax benefits may not be available in full.