Will Nifty slip to 23,150 or cross 23,850? Anil Singhvi decodes today’s market setup

Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open on a cautious note on Tuesday amid mixed global cues and rising concerns around crude oil prices and the rupee’s weakness.

Asian markets traded mixed in early deals, while the US stock market ended mostly lower overnight due to profit-booking in technology shares. Investors are also watching the developments on the US-Iran front, crude oil prices, foreign institutional investor (FII) flows and key technical levels for Nifty and Bank Nifty.

On Monday, domestic equity benchmarks ended largely flat but recovered sharply from intraday lows due to buying in select heavyweight stocks.

The Sensex closed 77.05 points, or 0.10 per cent, higher at 75,315.04, while the Nifty 50 settled 6.45 points, or 0.03 per cent, up at 23,649.95.

Crude oil, rupee remain key concerns

Market participants remain cautious as crude oil prices continue to stay elevated amid geopolitical tensions in West Asia. Traders are also watching the rupee closely as it slipped to a fresh life-time low against the US dollar.

Zee Business Managing Editor Anil Singhvi said key questions for the market today are whether crude oil will move towards $105 or even $115 per barrel and how much more rupee can weaken.

He also pointed out that FIIs and DIIs were both buyers in the previous session which could support market sentiment provided global conditions remain stable.

Relief after US delays Iran strike

Investor sentiment improved after US President Donald Trump reportedly delayed a planned attack on Iran following requests from three countries.

Trump said serious negotiations were underway and warned that a larger attack could follow if talks fail. The development helped cool crude oil prices slightly, bringing them below the $110 per barrel mark.

US markets also recovered from lower levels after the news. Meanwhile, Iran’s stock market reopened on Tuesday after remaining shut for nearly 80 days.

Adani Group settlement seen as positive

Another major trigger for the market is the reported settlement between the Adani Group and the US Treasury.

The settlement amount is reportedly around Rs 2,648 crore. Analysts view the development as positive for the group, though markets are still awaiting clarity on the separate US Department of Justice bribery-related matter.

According to Singhvi, a settlement in the bribery case would be a much bigger relief for the Adani Group.

Adani stocks have seen mild profit-booking over the last two sessions, and traders expect some volatility if shares open with a sharp gap-up on Tuesday.

Bank Nifty fills key gap, support seen at 52,600-52,800.

Singhvi said the Bank Nifty has now filled a major price gap created between the April 7 high and April 8 low.

The index touched an intraday low of 52,783 on Monday before witnessing a sharp rebound of nearly 875 points.

Singhvi now see the 52,600-52,800 zone as a strong support range for Bank Nifty. Fresh weakness may emerge only if the index closes below 52,500.

Nifty support placed near 23,150

The Nifty 50 has also filled its April gap near the 23,153 level.

Singhvi believe the 23,125-23,300 range is now an important support zone for the benchmark index. A close below 23,100 may trigger deeper weakness, while on the upside traders will watch whether Nifty crosses 23,850 and Bank Nifty moves above 54,450.