Why steel stocks are rising: SAIL, Tata Steel, JSW, Jindal gain as JP Morgan remains bullish

Metal Stocks Today: Shares of steel companies were in demand and traded higher by up to 2 per cent on the BSE during intra-day trade, supported by firm steel prices and an improving near-term outlook. Stocks such as Tata Steel, Steel Authority of India (SAIL), JSW Steel, and Jindal Steel gained between 1 and 2 per cent, with most trading close to their respective 52-week highs.

At around 11:49 am IST, the benchmark BSE Sensex was trading lower by 126.08 points, or 0.15 per cent, at 83,324.88, while the Nifty 50 slipped 32.85 points, or 0.13 per cent, to 25,692.55, highlighting the steel sector’s relative strength amid a subdued broader market.

Over the past one month, steel stocks have rallied between 7 per cent and 16 per cent, significantly outperforming the benchmark indices. During the same period, the Sensex gained just 0.25 per cent, while the BSE Metal index advanced 3.5 per cent.

Among individual names, Jindal Steel touched an all-time high of Rs 1,230, rising nearly 2 per cent in intra-day trade. The stock has surged 16 per cent over the past month.

Steel Sector Q3 results review

According to ICICI Securities, domestic steelmakers reported a sequential decline in realizations of around Rs 2,500–3,000 per ton in Q3FY26, weighed down by steel oversupply and rising low-cost imports. Operating performance was further impacted by a $4–5 per ton increase in coking coal costs.

Despite these pressures, most companies managed to restrict the EBITDA per ton decline to around Rs 1,800 quarter-on-quarter through a better product mix and cost optimisation. However, Jindal Steel saw a sharper Rs 4,000 per ton QoQ decline, due to an adverse mix, lower by-product sales, and one-time blast furnace commissioning costs.

Going ahead, the government’s 12 per cent safeguard duty imposed in mid-December 2025 has supported domestic steel prices, which have risen by nearly Rs 3,500 per ton QoQ. That said, a $15–20 per ton increase in coking coal prices could cap margin gains. Overall, analysts expect EBITDA per ton to improve by Rs 1,500–Rs 2,000 in Q4FY26.

How will the metal stocks perform in the future

JP Morgan said Indian metal stocks have traded choppy over the past one month, reacting to earnings commentary, geo-economic developments, and commodity price movements. The brokerage believes the near-to-medium-term steel price outlook remains supportive, with the recent rally driven more by supply tightness, restocking, and higher coking coal costs, rather than a sharp improvement in demand.

JP Morgan added that Indian steel prices still have room to rise till the seasonally strong period up to May. Meanwhile, aluminium stocks have come under pressure amid falling commodity prices. Hindalco has corrected sharply on debt concerns following the Novelis disruption, although the stock’s current valuation still implies a favourable LME aluminium price of around $3,075–3,100 per ton.

Metal stocks share price target: What should investors do?

JP Morgan remains optimistic on Tata Steel, citing it as its top pick in the metals sector, highlighting supportive steel prices and improving industry dynamics. The brokerage has maintained an Overweight rating on Tata Steel with a target price of Rs 221, compared with the current market price of around Rs 203.

On the contrary, the global brokerage is more skeptical on NMDC, maintaining an Underweight rating with a target of Rs 70 against a CMP of Rs 79. It has also retained a Neutral stance on Coal India, with a target price of Rs 397, compared with the current price of Rs 421.