Why are crude oil prices surging again—and will it hit $200 amid Iran‑Israel war?

Crude Oil Prices Today: Brent crude oil futures surged sharply on March 12, 2026, crossing USD 100 per barrel amid rising tensions in the Middle East. The rise came after reports of attacks on oil tankers in Iraqi waters by Iranian explosive-laden boats and escalating conflict between Iran and Israel.

Analysts said the situation has raised concerns over global oil supply and could push prices even higher.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Today

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Brent crude oil futures closed at USD 100.20 per barrel on March 12, up USD 8.22 or 8.94 per cent from the previous close of USD 91.98.

The contract opened at USD 96.84 and traded between USD 96.96 and USD 101.59 during the day. The gain from the previous close to the day’s high was USD 9.61 or 10.45 per cent.

Brent crude has risen 48.33 per cent in the past month and 41.31 per cent in the last year. The 52-week trading range of the crude is USD 58.40 to USD 119.50.

Rising Regional Tensions

Iran has intensified attacks on merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Officials warned that crude oil prices could reach USD 200 per barrel if the situation continues.

Ebrahim Zolfaqari, spokesperson for Tehran's Khatam al-Anbiya military command headquarters, said, "We won't allow even one litre of oil to reach the US, Israel and their partners. Any vessel or tanker bound to them will be a legitimate target."

He added, "Get ready for the oil barrel to be at USD 200 because the oil price depends on the regional security, which you have destabilised."

On Wednesday, three vessels were reported to have been hit in Gulf waters. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said their forces fired on ships that disobeyed orders.

US President Donald Trump said the war with Iran has been won, but he will stay engaged until the conflict is fully resolved.

Expert Views on Market Impact

Market expert Ajay Bagga said, "Iran has carried out attacks in eight countries and threatened US banks and technology company offices. This has created a very negative impact on the Gulf economy and market sentiment. The situation does not indicate any pause in the conflict."

Bagga added that attacks on strategic economic locations, including ports and financial centres, are increasing concerns over oil supply. This has pushed crude prices higher despite international measures, including G7 reserve releases.

Zee Business Managing Editor Anil Singhvi said, "The oil market can completely disrupt the global economy. The developments since yesterday afternoon are critical for trading and investment decisions."

He noted that the International Energy Agency (IEA) has released 400 million barrels from strategic reserves, the largest-ever single release. "On one hand, oil is coming in, and that should ease supply concerns. On the other hand, the very need for this release shows the seriousness of the situation," he said.

Singhvi added that statements from Iranian military officials, threatening that crude prices could reach $200 per barrel and restricting oil exports, have further fueled market fears. He said, "Iran clearly wants to turn this war into an economic conflict. The market risk will rise globally."

He warned that sectors like aviation, hotels, and oil marketing companies may face significant challenges. "Oil prices have reached $101. Companies in aviation and hospitality will not get relief. Oil marketing shares may fall by 10 to 15 per cent," Singhvi said.

The expert highlighted that the Strait of Hormuz has become the central point of the conflict. "More than 20 per cent of the world’s oil and gas supply passes through here. Iran is using crude as a leverage to create global fear," he said.

Global Measures to Stabilise Supply

The International Energy Agency (IEA) announced a historic release of 400 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves to prevent further price rises. The US said it will release 172 million barrels from next week as part of the plan.

Despite these measures, crude prices remain elevated due to attacks on oil tankers and ports, particularly in the Persian Gulf, where a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz.

Impact on India’s Energy Imports

India imports around 40 per cent of its crude oil from the Middle East through the Strait of Hormuz. The country is also the second-largest importer of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).

India imports liquefied natural gas (LNG) from several countries. Qatar is the largest supplier with 47.28 per cent, followed by the United Arab Emirates at 13.47 per cent, the United States at 10.51 per cent, Oman at 7.67 per cent, Angola at 7.29 per cent, and Nigeria at 6.62 per cent. Other countries account for 7.16 percent.

If only Middle East suppliers are considered, Qatar, UAE, and Oman, their combined share in India’s LNG imports comes to 68.42 per cent. This indicates that more than two-thirds of India’s LNG supply is sourced from the region.