Editor's Take: Sensex, Nifty at turning point; Anil Singhvi explains what it means

Nifty, Sensex Today: Indian benchmark indices — the Sensex and Nifty 50 — are likely to open higher on Monday, tracking firm cues from GIFT Nifty.

GIFT Nifty

GIFT Nifty was trading at 22,763 around 8 AM, up 166.5 points or 0.74 per cent. This suggests a positive start after a one-day market holiday on Good Friday.

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However, the early gains may not fully sustain. Global cues remain mixed. Risk sentiment is fragile.

Global cues: Gains, but caution persists

Asian markets opened in the green.

The US market ended mixed in the last session. Even then, all three major Wall Street indices posted strong weekly gains.

Still, investors are cautious. The focus is on rising tensions between the US and Iran.

Crude oil prices remain elevated near $110 per barrel. This is a key concern. Higher oil prices can hurt inflation and growth outlook.

Previous session: Recovery at close

Domestic markets were shut on Friday.

On Thursday, markets recovered from sharp intraday losses. Both indices ended higher for the second straight session.

The Sensex rose 185.23 points, or 0.25 per cent, to close at 73,319.55.

The Nifty 50 gained 33.70 points, or 0.15 per cent, to settle at 22,713.10.

Late buying supported the recovery. This shows some strength at lower levels.

Geopolitics in focus: Next 12 hours crucial

Market participants are closely tracking developments in the Middle East.

According to Anil Singhvi, the next 12 hours are critical for markets.

Donald Trump is expected to address the media at 11:30 PM IST. His comments could set the near-term direction.

Both the US and Iran have issued aggressive statements. Neither side appears ready to step back. This raises the risk of a prolonged conflict.

There are, however, some signs of stability. Reports suggest higher movement of ships through the Strait of Hormuz in the last two days.

More vessels are being allowed to pass. This has eased immediate fears of supply disruption. That is why Asian markets have not reacted sharply so far.

Crude oil remains the key trigger

Oil prices are holding near $110 per barrel.

This is a major overhang for markets. A further rise in crude can pressure currencies, increase inflation concerns, and impact earnings outlook.

For India, high oil prices are a direct macro risk. This makes crude the most important variable to watch.

Sector watch: Pharma gets relief, metals under pressure

The US has announced a 100 per cent tariff on patented drugs, to be implemented within 120 days.

However, there is relief for Indian pharma companies. Generics, biosimilars, and related ingredients have been exempted for one year.

This removes a key uncertainty.

Stocks like Lupin, Dr. Reddy's Laboratories, Alkem Laboratories, and Aurobindo Pharma may see support.

Divi's Laboratories and Biocon could benefit from improved sentiment.

In contrast, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries may see relatively higher pressure.

On the other hand, metals remain weak.

The US has imposed a 50 per cent tariff on imports of steel, aluminium, and copper. This has led to softness in global metal prices. Domestic metal stocks may stay under pressure.

Domestic factors offer some support

• Despite global risks, local factors remain supportive.
• Domestic institutional investors continue to buy steadily.
• The rupee has shown recovery.
• Banks have reported strong quarterly updates.
• FMCG and retail companies have also indicated stable demand trends.
• Clarity on pharma tariffs has reduced uncertainty in that sector.
• These factors may help limit downside in the near term.

Key risks to monitor

• Escalation in US-Iran conflict
• Outcome of Trump’s late-night address
• Continued selling by foreign investors
• Further spike in crude oil prices
• Weak global cues from metals