Sensex, Nifty Today: Flat opening expected; global markets firm, rupee weak

Sensex, Nifty Today: The Indian stock market is expected to open on a flat-to-positive note on Monday, January 12. Asian markets were trading higher in early hours. However, geopolitical tensions linked to the US-Iran conflict may cap sharp gains.

GIFT Nifty today

Early trends from Gift Nifty indicated a flat start for domestic equities. Gift Nifty was trading at 25,793.5, down 22.5 points, or 0.09 per cent, from its previous close.

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Previous session recap

On Friday, benchmark indices ended lower for the fifth straight session. Investor sentiment remained cautious due to renewed concerns over US tariffs, uncertainty ahead of the Q3 earnings season, and sustained foreign fund outflows.

The BSE Sensex fell 605 points, or 0.72 per cent, to close at 83,576.24. The Nifty 50 declined 194 points, or 0.75 per cent, to end at 25,683.30.

Broader markets continued to underperform. The BSE Midcap index slipped 0.90 per cent, while the Smallcap index dropped 1.74 per cent.

Weekly market performance

Indian equities underperformed global peers last week. The domestic market fell 2.5 per cent, making it the weakest among major global markets.

In comparison, South Korea gained 6.5 per cent, China rose 4 per cent, and Japan advanced 3 per cent. US markets also remained strong, with the Dow Jones and Nasdaq rising more than 2 per cent.

The Nifty snapped its two-week winning streak and declined 2.5 per cent last week. Bank Nifty fell 1.5 per cent. The Midcap Select index dropped 2.2 per cent and continued to trade in the 13,600–14,100 range for the ninth consecutive week.

The Smallcap index ended a three-week rally and declined 3.1 per cent. All four major indices recorded their biggest weekly fall in three months.

Sectorally, energy stocks were the worst hit, falling 5 per cent. Metal stocks declined 3 per cent, while auto stocks slipped 2.5 per cent.

Daily technical indicators

The Nifty fell for the fifth consecutive session and touched a 42-day low. This was the first time in three months that the index declined for five straight days.

The index has formed a lower high and lower low pattern for four consecutive sessions, indicating weakness. On January 8, the Nifty closed below its 50-day moving average after 67 days. On January 9, it slipped below the 25,750 level for the first time since
November 12.

Bank Nifty also remained under pressure. The index declined for the third straight day and formed a lower high and lower low for the fourth session. It closed below the key support zone of 59,700–59,800, which had held since December 2025. The next major support is seen in the 58,650–58,800 range.

FII and DII activity

Foreign institutional investors reduced their long positions in index futures. FII long exposure fell to 7.53 per cent from 8.70 per cent.
FIIs remained net sellers in the cash market for the fifth consecutive session on Friday. They sold shares worth Rs 3,769 crore. Across cash, index futures, and stock futures, FIIs recorded a combined net outflow of Rs 6,078 crore.

In contrast, domestic institutional investors continued their buying streak. Domestic funds bought shares worth Rs 5,596 crore, marking the 94th consecutive day of net inflows.

Dow Jones, dollar and commodities in focus

Global markets remained strong on Friday. The Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 closed at fresh lifetime highs.
The rupee weakened for the third consecutive week. On Friday, it slipped 14 paise to close at 90.16 against the US dollar. The dollar index hovered near 98.90, close to a one-month high.

Crude oil prices rose to a five-week high and were trading near $63 a barrel. Precious metals remained firm. Gold and silver touched fresh lifetime highs in early trade on Monday. Silver has surged 11 per cent since Friday.

Base metals such as copper, zinc, and nickel also rebounded after two days of decline.

Markets will now track global cues, currency movement, crude oil prices, and upcoming Q3 earnings announcements for further direction.