Sensex, Nifty set for weak start; where to buy, where to book profit — Anil Singhvi explains

Indian stock market benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty 50 are expected to open lower on Friday. Global cues remained mixed. However, sentiment stayed supported by optimism that tensions around the US-Iran conflict could ease in the near term.

GIFT Nifty

At 8 AM, GIFT Nifty was trading at 24,175.50, down 38.50 points or 0.16 per cent, indicating a muted to negative start for domestic equities.

Asian markets traded lower in early deals. However, US markets ended higher overnight. Nasdaq extended its winning streak to 12 straight sessions, marking its longest rally since July 2009. This divergence is likely to keep investors cautious at the open.

On Thursday, Indian equities ended lower after giving up early gains. Profit booking in index heavyweights dragged benchmarks into the red. Sensex fell 122.56 points or 0.16 per cent to close at 77,988.68. Nifty 50 declined 34.55 points or 0.14 per cent to settle at 24,196.75.

Editor’s take: Key market questions in focus

Market participants are tracking multiple global and domestic triggers today. These include developments around geopolitical tensions, crude oil movement, foreign investor flows, and earnings reactions from key companies like Wipro, Angel One and HDFC Life.

Key questions being watched include:

• Signs of de-escalation in global conflict and impact on sentiment
• Risk of crude oil moving above $100 per barrel
• Whether FII selling pressure is easing
• Whether markets can sustain recovery after alternating sessions of gains and losses
• Impact of record highs in US indices on domestic sentiment
• Key support zones for Nifty and Bank Nifty
• Fresh entry levels after recent recovery
• Profit booking strategy ahead of weekend session
• Momentum in mid and smallcap segment
• Earnings impact on IT and insurance stocks
• What is supporting the market

Global and domestic cues remain a mix of caution and support. Key positives include:

• Former US President Donald Trump signalling stronger chances of conflict resolution
• Reports of temporary ceasefire developments in Israel-Lebanon region
• Signs of moderation in FII selling pressure
• S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting fresh record highs
• Continued strength in midcap and smallcap stocks
• India VIX remaining soft, indicating controlled volatility
• What is weighing on sentiment

At the same time, several concerns are limiting upside:

• Risk of crude oil crossing $100 per barrel
• FII activity remains weak despite intermittent buying
• DIIs have continued selling pressure for second straight session
• Resistance seen near 24,500 for Nifty and 57,250 for Bank Nifty
• Cautious positioning ahead of weekend session
• Weak earnings commentary from Wipro adding pressure on IT space
• HDFC Life results failing to impress markets
• Nifty recovery levels: key technical zones

Nifty has staged a strong rebound from recent lows, but faces important resistance zones ahead.

Before the conflict escalation, Nifty closed at 25,178 on February 27. It then corrected sharply and fell 2,996 points to a low of 22,182 by April 2. Since then, it has recovered nearly two-thirds of the fall.

The next key zone is 24,450–24,550. The 24,450 level also aligns with the 50-day moving average (DMA). A move beyond 24,550 would complete nearly three-fourths recovery of the recent decline.

The next major resistance is placed near 100 DMA and 200 DMA around 25,175, which also coincides with the pre-correction levels.

On the downside, strong support is seen in the 23,150–23,450 range. A break below this zone could signal a shift in the near-term trend.

Bank Nifty recovery levels: key technical zones

Bank Nifty has also recovered sharply from recent lows.

It closed at 60,529 on February 27 before sliding 10,575 points to a low of 49,954 on April 2.

In the recent sessions, it has reclaimed the 56,500 mark intraday, indicating a two-thirds recovery of the fall.

A sustained close above 56,500 could open the door for the 50 DMA and 200 DMA zone around 57,150–57,275.

The next major resistance is seen near the 100 DMA at 58,300. A move towards 58,266 would complete nearly three-fourths recovery of the earlier decline.