Sensex, Nifty set for firm start; can momentum sustain at higher levels? Anil Singhvi decodes | Editor's Take

Indian equity benchmarks — the Sensex and Nifty 50 — are likely to open higher on Thursday, extending the previous session’s strong gains. The positive setup comes on the back of a global market rally and easing geopolitical concerns after fresh signals of possible US-Iran talks.

GIFT Nifty

Early indicators remain supportive. GIFT Nifty was trading around the 24,300 mark, implying a premium of nearly 60 points over the previous close of Nifty futures. This suggests a firm start for domestic equities.

Add Zee Business as a Preferred Source

Previous session: benchmarks post strong gains

On Wednesday, the Indian market ended sharply higher, supported by broad-based buying and improved global sentiment.

The Sensex jumped 1,263.67 points, or 1.64 per cent, to close at 78,111.24. The Nifty 50 rose 388.65 points, or 1.63 per cent, to settle at 24,231.30, reclaiming the 24,200 level.

The rally was led by financials, IT, and select heavyweights, while mid- and small-cap indices also outperformed and crossed pre-conflict levels.

Global cues: risk appetite improves

Investor sentiment improved after comments from US President Donald Trump संकेत that the conflict could end soon. He also hinted at possible positive developments in the next two days.

Expectations of sustained ceasefire, easing tensions in the Middle East, and stable energy supply routes have supported global equities. US markets, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, hit fresh record highs, reinforcing the risk-on mood.

Anil Singhvi’s take: ‘Trump soft, market strong’

Anil Singhvi said the market undertone has turned decisively positive.

“Trump has turned soft and markets have turned strong. There are signals that the war may end soon, and that is driving sentiment,” he said.

He added that expectations of a favourable outcome in the next two days, along with positive commentary on China, are further supporting global markets.

Singhvi also highlighted that the possibility of uninterrupted oil supply, especially through key routes like Hormuz, is reducing risk perception.

What is supporting the rally

According to Singhvi, multiple factors are driving the current momentum:

• Clear signals of de-escalation in geopolitical tensions
• No fresh attacks and effective ceasefire implementation
• Return of FII buying, even if modest
• US markets hitting record highs
• Progress on global trade discussions
• Strong technical structure in benchmark indices
• Mid- and small-cap indices moving above pre-war levels
• Sharp fall in India VIX, indicating lower volatility
• Strong banking data, including loan and deposit growth
• Corporate earnings so far better than expectations

What could cap the upside

Despite the positive trend, some risks remain on the radar:

• Crude oil prices holding near $95 per barrel
• FII buying still limited in scale
• Marginal selling by DIIs after a long buying streak
• Key resistance levels approaching for Nifty and Bank Nifty
• Potential volatility due to weekly expiry in the Sensex

Technical view: key resistance zones ahead

Singhvi said the Nifty is approaching a crucial resistance band as part of its recovery from recent lows.

• The index had closed near 25,178 before the sell-off began in late February
• It corrected sharply to a low near 22,182 in early April
• A significant portion of the decline has now been recovered

He sees the immediate resistance in the 24,450–24,550 range. This zone coincides with key moving averages and retracement levels.

A decisive breakout above this band could push the Nifty towards the 25,150–25,200 zone, which also aligns with longer-term averages.

For Bank Nifty, the recovery trend remains intact:

• The index has already completed a large part of its rebound
• Sustaining above 56,500 could open the path towards 57,250
• Further upside may extend towards 58,300, marking the next major resistance