Stock Market Crash: How much more will Sensex and Nifty fall? Anil Singhvi explains

Stock Market Crash Today: Stock markets have witnessed a sharp decline since the outbreak of the Iran-Israel conflict earlier this month. Benchmark indices and overall market capitalisation have contracted significantly, reflecting growing investor concern over geopolitical tensions and their impact on global and domestic markets.

Sensex and Nifty Fall Sharply

The BSE Sensex, which stood at 80,238.85 on March 2, the day the Iran-Israel war began, has dropped to 76,034.42 as of March 12. This represents a decline of 4,204.43 points, or 5.24 per cent over the period.

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Similarly, the Nifty 50 fell from 24,865.70 on March 2 to 23,639.15 on March 12, registering a drop of 1,226.55 points, or nearly 4.93 per cent.

Over the past five trading sessions, the Sensex declined 3,508.76 points, or 4.41 per cent, while the Nifty 50 fell 1,041.90 points, or 4.22 per cent. On a year-to-date basis, the Sensex is down 9,154.18 points, or 10.75 per cent, and the Nifty 50 has lost 2,507.40 points, or 9.59 per cent.

Broader Market Capitalisation Also Erodes

The total market value of BSE-listed companies has also contracted. Market capitalisation declined from Rs 4.63 lakh crore on February 27 to Rs 4.40 lakh crore on March 12, a drop of Rs 23.44 lakh crore, or around 5.06 per cent.

Geopolitical Tensions Driving Market Weakness

Market expert Anil Singhvi said ongoing geopolitical developments are keeping markets under pressure. “We have entered the 14th day of the conflict. There is no sign that the war will end soon. The intensity of attacks has slightly decreased, but missile, bomb, and drone activity continues. The verbal aggression from both sides is creating uncertainty and weighing on markets,” Singhvi said.

Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has issued aggressive statements, raising further concerns among investors. He stated that the Strait of Hormuz will remain completely closed, preventing any ship passage. This is significant because around 20 per cent of the global oil supply passes through the Strait. He also warned that any Gulf country hosting US military bases would face attacks.

Singhvi said these statements clearly indicate that the conflict may be prolonged. “Every day, the risk of a longer war increases. The chance of immediate peace talks or a quick resolution is minimal,” he added.

Impact on Oil and Inflation

The geopolitical tension has pushed global crude oil prices above USD 100 per barrel, putting additional pressure on inflation and costs in India. High oil prices may impact economic growth and corporate margins, further affecting market sentiment.

“Russia is benefiting the most from higher oil prices, while the Gulf countries cannot sell oil easily due to the blockade,” Singhvi said.

FII Selling Adding to Downside

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have continued heavy selling in Indian markets. “We are seeing daily FII net selling worth over Rs 10,000 crore. Every intraday recovery is met with selling. Domestic funds are buying modestly, but overall there is a lack of sufficient buying to support the markets,” Singhvi noted.

This continued FII outflow has reinforced downward pressure on indices, limiting the potential for sustained recovery.

Technical Levels Suggest Limited Near-Term Upside

From a technical standpoint, markets have not yet reached a strong support zone that could trigger a solid rebound. Singhvi said, “Any recovery in the near term is likely to be temporary and limited. Investors should expect further downside unless a major positive trigger emerges.”

He provided key support and resistance levels for reference. “For Nifty, the next support zone is 23,275–23,450, while resistance is around 23,835–23,975. For Bank Nifty, support lies at 54,375–54,500, and resistance is seen at 55,500–55,750,” he said.

Singhvi also noted that Fridays often see cautious trading, particularly Friday the 13th, as investors tend to book profits or remain wary over the weekend. “Historically, markets often remain weak over the weekend due to uncertainty,” he said.

Global Cues Also Weak

US markets have also contributed to the bearish sentiment. Singhvi said US equities closed sharply lower recently, marking their lowest levels since November 2025. Combined with heavy war-related spending and US debt levels, this has increased volatility in global markets.

“US financial policies and market conditions are contributing to uncertainty. While the US has funds, it is also heavily in debt. This adds to global market volatility,” Singhvi explained.

How Much More Can the Markets Fall?

According to Singhvi, the key question for investors is no longer whether markets will fall, but how much further they can decline. “Markets have not yet reached a major support zone from where a clear rebound can be expected. Some temporary recoveries may occur during the trading session as markets become oversold, but such rebounds could be short-lived,” he said.

He emphasised that multiple negative factors—geopolitical tensions, high oil prices, FII selling, weak global cues, and technical weakness—suggest that the downside risk remains high.

Unless there is a major positive development, such as a de-escalation of the Iran-Israel conflict or a sudden shift in global markets, investors should be prepared for further declines.