Rs 25 lakh crore wiped out in 10 days! What should you do as Sensex and Nifty bleed amid Israel–Iran conflict?

Rising tensions in the Middle East following the conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran have triggered sharp volatility in global crude oil prices and financial markets. The surge in crude oil prices has raised concerns about its possible impact on the Indian economy, corporate earnings and the domestic stock market.

The conflict, widely referred to as the 2026 Israel–Iran war, began on February 28, 2026, when the United States and Israel launched coordinated strikes on Iran under Operation Epic Fury and Operation Roaring Lion.

Since the tensions escalated, the market capitalisation of companies listed on the BSE has fallen sharply. According to market data, investor wealth declined by about Rs 25.31 lakh crore between February 27 and March 9.

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Market experts said that while rising crude prices may create near-term pressure on inflation and fiscal balances, long-term investors should avoid panic and adopt a gradual investment strategy.

Market volatility amid geopolitical tensions

Global markets have remained volatile since the escalation of tensions in the Middle East. Higher crude oil prices often increase concerns about inflation and input costs for companies, particularly for oil-importing economies such as India.

Benchmark indices have also witnessed pressure in recent sessions. Over the past five trading days, the BSE Sensex fell 3,531.74 points, or 4.39 per cent, to 76,964.94.

Meanwhile, the Nifty 50 slipped 491.75 points, or 2.02 per cent, to 23,853.45 during the same period.

Duration of crude spike key for India

Spark Capital Private Wealth Deputy Managing Director and CEO (Equity NDPMS) Devang Mehta said the impact on the Indian economy will largely depend on how long the crude oil price spike continues.

Speaking to Anil Singhvi, Managing Editor of Zee Business, Mehta said uncertainty around the duration of the geopolitical crisis makes it difficult for investors to predict market movements.

“No one can accurately say whether the conflict will last for eight days, fifteen days or a month. Because of that uncertainty, investors should avoid aggressive investments and instead invest gradually,” he said.

Market panic can create opportunities

Mehta said market corrections triggered by global events often turn into long-term buying opportunities for investors. He said investors typically suffer losses not because markets fall but because they panic during periods of volatility.

“Investors do not lose when markets panic; they lose when they themselves panic,” Mehta said. He noted that historical corrections have often turned into opportunities for long-term investors.

“Whether it was the 2000 correction, the 2008 financial crisis or the 2020 pandemic-led fall, these periods later turned out to be strong buying opportunities in hindsight,” he said.

Higher crude may pressure economy

Mehta said crude oil remains a critical factor for India because the country depends heavily on imports to meet its energy needs. A sustained rise in crude prices can increase input costs for companies, push inflation higher and widen the fiscal deficit.

“If crude prices remain elevated for a longer period, it can create pressure on corporate margins, inflation and government finances,” he said.

Strong macro indicators support markets

Despite the risks from higher oil prices, Mehta said India’s economic fundamentals remain relatively strong. He pointed to steady GDP growth, strong manufacturing activity and healthy tax collections as supportive factors for the market over the medium term.

“Indian macroeconomic indicators have been strong. Corporate earnings growth has also been healthy across segments,” he said.

According to him, large-cap companies have reported earnings growth of around 14–15 per cent in recent quarters.

“Mid-caps have reported roughly 19 per cent earnings growth and small-caps around 23–24 per cent. Ultimately, markets follow earnings over the long term,” he said.

Three investment themes experts highlight

Mehta said investors should focus on fundamentally strong companies and specific investment themes rather than broad market momentum. The first theme is capital expenditure-driven sectors such as infrastructure, capital goods, manufacturing and engineering.

“These sectors have witnessed corrections, but many companies continue to report strong order inflows and improving profitability,” he said.

The second theme is discretionary consumption, where demand indicators such as automobile sales and consumer spending remain resilient. “Vehicle sales data, including two-wheelers, passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles, has remained strong in recent months,” Mehta said.

The third theme is financial services, particularly private banks, non-banking financial companies and capital-market-linked businesses. “These segments benefit from credit growth and expanding financial activity in the economy,” he said.

Gradual investing strategy advised

Mehta advised investors to invest in phases instead of trying to perfectly time the market. “There is no need to invest everything immediately. Opportunities may continue to emerge over the coming weeks, and investors can build positions gradually,” he said.

Experts said that while geopolitical tensions and crude oil volatility may continue to create near-term uncertainty, disciplined investing and a long-term approach remain key strategies for investors navigating volatile markets.