RBI Policy Today: Will Banks, NBFCs and Realty stocks explode if rates are cut? Anil Singhvi’s big outlook

Rate-sensitive stocks are set to remain in focus today as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) gears up to announce its final monetary policy for the calendar year. Market participants expect banks, NBFCs and realty shares to react sharply depending on the policy tone and the possibility of a rate cut.

A softer policy stance with hints of future easing could support credit demand, lower funding costs and improve housing affordability. Shares of HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, State Bank of India, Axis Bank, Bajaj Finance, Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company, Canara Bank, Federal Bank, IDFC First Bank and Shriram Finance are expected to remain active through the session.

Governor’s earlier comments lift expectations

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In November, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra had indicated that there was scope to reduce policy rates further. “At the last MPC meeting in October, it was communicated clearly there is room to cut policy rates. Since then, the macro-economic data we have received has not indicated that the room to lower rates has decreased,” he told Zee Business.

He added that whether the Monetary Policy Committee acts now will depend on the panel, briefly lifting expectations of a 25-basis point cut.

Market enters policy day with divided expectations

The policy announcement has become a key market event as expectations remain sharply split. Traders and analysts are watching closely to see whether Governor Shaktikanta Das will shift toward a growth-supportive stance.

Zee Business Managing Editor Anil Singhvi said the market is heading into the policy “with more questions than answers.” According to him, this is one of those rare occasions where there is no clear consensus on the likely outcome.

What Anil Singhvi expects

Singhvi believes the economic backdrop supports at least one more rate cut. Despite robust GDP growth, he pointed out that low inflation has pulled nominal GDP to about 8.7 per cent, lower than ideal for a fast-growing economy.

“Inflation is low, data is strong, and the space for a rate cut exists. According to me, a cut should come today,” he said. He also highlighted the Governor’s earlier comment that there was “definite room” to ease.

If the RBI cuts rates

A 25-basis point cut could trigger a positive market reaction, Singhvi said, as expectations are not one-sided. Banking stocks may take the lead, with Bank Nifty attempting to revisit its life highs. Nifty could move toward 26,200–26,300.
However, he cautioned that profit-booking is likely once the initial excitement settles.

If the RBI holds rates

Singhvi expects a knee-jerk dip if the RBI keeps rates unchanged. The market’s direction afterward will depend on the Governor’s commentary.

If the statement hints at a cut in the next policy, the downside may remain limited. But if there is no cut and no strong guidance, the market could face a double setback, he said. In such a case, Nifty may drift toward 25,825–25,900, and Bank Nifty toward 58,650 — important support levels.

A close below these could shift the trend from positive to neutral.

What to watch through the day

Before the announcement, Singhvi expects range-bound trade as investors wait for clarity. After the decision, the market’s reaction will depend on whether the RBI prioritises growth or chooses caution.

For now, Singhvi summed up the sentiment “If rates are cut, the market will celebrate. If not, what the Governor says becomes far more important.”