ONGC Q4 Results Preview: Profit may dip despite higher revenue; dividend announcement in focus

State-run oil and gas major Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) is set to announce its March quarter and full-year FY26 results on May 26, 2026. The company informed exchanges that its board will meet on Tuesday to consider and approve the audited standalone and consolidated financial results for the quarter and year ended March 31, 2026.

The board may also recommend a final dividend for FY26 along with the earnings announcement, making the stock one of the key PSU counters to watch next week.

ONGC Q4FY26 Preview

According to Zee Business research estimates, ONGC is likely to report a mixed set of numbers for the March quarter.

Revenue is expected to rise 14.4 per cent quarter-on-quarter to Rs 36,097 crore, compared with Rs 31,546 crore in the December quarter. Adjusted EBITDA is estimated at Rs 19,511 crore against Rs 17,323 crore in Q3FY26, reflecting a growth of 12.6 per cent.

However, EBITDA margins may slightly soften to 54.1 per cent from 54.9 per cent in the previous quarter.

Net profit is projected to decline 1.7 per cent sequentially to Rs 8,230 crore versus Rs 8,372 crore in the December quarter.

The estimates also factor in survey and exploratory well costs of around Rs 2,050 crore adjusted in EBITDA.

What may support earnings

Higher crude oil realisation is expected to support ONGC’s operating performance in the quarter. Analysts estimate crude realisation could rise nearly 24 per cent sequentially, helping improve topline growth and EBITDA.

At the same time, lower statutory levies and contribution from new wells may continue to provide some support to profitability.

Key risks to watch

Gas realisation may remain under pressure due to weaker APM and NWG gas prices. Analysts expect gas realisation to decline by around 2 per cent during the quarter.

Higher exploration-related expenses may also weigh on profitability. Survey and exploratory well costs are estimated to rise as much as 50 per cent sequentially.

Another key monitorable will be production growth from the KG Basin. Any delay in ramp-up of higher crude production from the basin could emerge as a major downside risk for the company.

Investors will also closely track management commentary on gas production ramp-up and production guidance for FY27.

ONGC dividend announcement in focus

ONGC said the board may also consider recommending a final dividend for FY26 in the May 26 meeting.

The PSU has maintained a consistent dividend payout track record. In February 2026, the company paid a dividend of Rs 6.25 per share. In 2025, ONGC announced dividends on three occasions — Rs 6 in November, Rs 1.25 in September and Rs 5 in February.

ONGC Q3FY26 performance

ONGC had reported a 1.6 per cent year-on-year rise in standalone net profit at Rs 8,372 crore in the December quarter, compared with Rs 8,240 crore in the year-ago period.

The company had said higher realisation from new wells and lower statutory levies helped offset the impact of weaker crude oil prices during the quarter.

India’s largest crude oil and natural gas producer had also reported improved natural gas revenues even as earnings from crude oil production remained under pressure.