Nifty, Sensex Today: Worst may be behind, but don’t trust rally yet: Anil Singhvi

Nifty, Sensex Today: Indian markets may see a bounce on Tuesday after Monday’s sharp fall. But the recovery may not be strong or sustained. Volatility is likely to remain high, said Zee Business Managing Editor Anil Singhvi.

On Monday, markets saw heavy selling. The Sensex fell 1,836 points. The Nifty 50 dropped 602 points to close near 22,512. Midcap and smallcap stocks fell around 4 per cent. The rupee hit a fresh record low of 93.86 against the US dollar.

GIFT Nifty

Early signals are positive. GIFT Nifty was up about 406 points, or 1.81 per cent, indicating a gap-up start.

Key questions for today’s market

Singhvi said investors should focus on a few key questions:

• Is the war over or just paused?
• Is the worst behind for markets?
• Can investors trust Donald Trump’s statement?
• How much can markets rise today?
• Is the GIFT Nifty rally enough?
• Should one buy or sell on a gap-up opening?
• How much relief comes from crude below $100?
• Will FIIs stop selling?
• What is the next trigger for markets?
• Which sectors will lead the recovery?

What is positive right now

Singhvi said the biggest positive is the five-day ceasefire announcement. This suggests the war may have reached its peak.

There are early signs that talks could begin. That is a relief for global markets.

Crude oil prices have fallen around 10 per cent. This is a strong positive for India. Lower crude reduces inflation pressure.

He said oil prices may stay below $120 for now. This can also help the rupee stabilise after recent weakness.

What are the risks

Singhvi said markets should not get carried away.

The ceasefire is only for five days. The war has not ended. Iran has not officially confirmed any pause.

He also pointed out that Trump had earlier given a 48-hour ultimatum for action. Now there is a pause. This creates uncertainty.

There is always a risk that the situation can change quickly.

What traders should do

Singhvi advised caution.

He said traders should reduce positions in today’s recovery. Avoid fresh buying for now.

Markets may remain volatile. Selling can come at higher levels.

The key factor is FII activity. If FIIs stop selling or cover shorts, markets can rise. If selling continues, pressure will remain.

Till clarity comes, keep positions light.

Is Nifty oversold again?

Indicators show the market may be oversold.

India VIX touched 27.17, a one-year high. The last time volatility was this high was during election results in June 2024. After that fall, Nifty recovered 11 per cent in one month.

Nifty RSI has fallen to 27. Below 30 is considered oversold.

Since 2022, Nifty has turned oversold seven times. In six cases, markets saw a strong recovery between 6.7 per cent and 18 per cent.

But there was one exception in October 2024 when recovery did not come.

RSI had dropped to 28 on March 9. Since then, Nifty has fallen another 5 per cent. Now RSI is at 27.

Outlook for markets

A short-term bounce is likely. But conviction is low.

Crude prices and ceasefire hopes support sentiment. But global risks remain.

Singhvi’s advice is simple. Stay cautious. Treat any rise as a trading bounce, not a fresh bull run.