Nifty, Sensex Today: Positive start likely; Anil Singhvi flags key risks and triggers | Editor's Take

Nifty, Sensex Today: Indian stock indices Sensex and Nifty 50 are likely to open higher on Tuesday, following strong Asian markets and positive US futures. This is true even though Wall Street closed slightly lower. Investors are still cautious, but they are hopeful that the US and Iran might be able to talk about peace before the ceasefire deadline.

Asian markets rose on these hopes, even though there is still a lot of uncertainty about geopolitics.

Previous session: Markets end flat amid oil spike

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On Monday, Indian markets closed with marginal gains as rising crude oil prices and uncertainty around the US-Iran conflict kept investors on edge.

The Sensex rose 26.76 points, or 0.03 per cent, to close at 78,520.30. The Nifty 50 gained 11.30 points, or 0.05 per cent, to settle at 24,364.85.

The uptick was limited as crude hovered near $95 per barrel, reflecting supply concerns linked to geopolitical tensions.

US-Iran ceasefire deadline in focus

The ceasefire deadline between the US and Iran is set to expire soon, with no agreement yet in place. Both sides have accused each other of violations. Iran has indicated it will not engage in talks under pressure, while US President Donald Trump has warned of strong action if a deal fails.

Markets are currently pricing in a higher probability of a deal, which is why risk assets remain supported despite aggressive rhetoric.

Analysts note that a sharp market reaction may only come if hostilities resume or crude breaks out of the $90-100 range.

Tariff relief adds another global trigger

In a separate development, the US has initiated a tariff refund mechanism after court-led reversals. Importers can now apply for refunds worth up to $166 billion through an online system. This move could support global trade sentiment in the near term.

Anil Singhvi’s take: Key questions for today

Zee Business Managing Editor Anil Singhvi highlighted multiple factors that traders should track:

• Impact of aggressive US-Iran statements
• Possibility of a last-minute deal
• Continued FII selling pressure
• Strength in Asian markets
• Strategy on gap-up opening
• Whether Nifty can cross 24,500
• Opportunities in mid and smallcap stocks
• Sectoral leadership trends
• Impact of RBI’s forex rule relaxation

Positive vs negative triggers

Positives:

• Progress towards an India-US trade deal
• Strong Asian market cues
• Positive Dow futures
• Return of DII buying
• Technically strong market close
• Strong results from PNB Housing

Negatives:

• Escalating US-Iran rhetoric
• Resumption of FII selling after three days
• Slight weakness in the rupee
• Spike in volatility, with VIX rising 9 per cent

Strategy: Buy on dips remains intact

According to Singhvi, the broader market trend remains positive. He suggests continuing with a “buy on dips” strategy.

A decisive break below 24,000 on the Nifty would signal a trend reversal. On the upside, crossing 24,550 could trigger stronger momentum.

For today’s session, investors should avoid chasing a gap-up opening and instead wait for the first dip, as seen over the past few sessions, which has consistently offered buying opportunities. Read more