Nifty, Sensex at crossroads: Why today is ‘make or break’, Anil Singhvi explains

Editor's Take: Indian markets closed higher on Friday. But the bigger story is unfolding now. According to Anil Singhvi, today’s session can decide the near-term trend. Global cues have turned sharply negative. Risk is rising across markets.

The Nifty 50 gained 112 points to close at 23,114. The BSE Sensex also ended higher. The Bank Nifty rose 325 points and supported the market. Gains, however, came after volatility. Indices had trimmed strong intraday highs.

Now, early signals are weak. The GIFT Nifty is down more than 100 points. It opened with a gap-down. This suggests a weak start for Indian markets.

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Global markets signal risk-off

Global cues have worsened overnight. Asian markets have opened deep in the red. Japan’s Nikkei 225 has fallen nearly 4.6 per cent. South Korea’s Kospi is down over 6 per cent.

Anil Singhvi says this is a clear risk-off signal. Investors are moving away from equities. Fear is rising due to global tensions.

Iran war escalates tensions

The biggest concern is the rising conflict involving Iran, Israel and the United States.

In the last two days, the situation has escalated sharply. The US and Israel carried out an airstrike on Iran’s nuclear facility at Natanz. Iran responded with missile strikes targeting Israel’s nuclear region near Dimona.

The situation worsened after warnings around the Strait of Hormuz. The US has given Iran a deadline to reopen the route. It has warned of strikes on power plants if this does not happen. Iran has responded with threats to block Hormuz permanently.

Anil Singhvi says this is no longer just a regional issue. It is turning into an energy and economic war.

Oil prices hold the key

Crude oil is now the biggest trigger for markets. Prices are trading near $112 per barrel. This reflects high geopolitical stress.

Anil Singhvi highlights key levels. He says $105 should be seen as the base. A $15 move on either side is possible anytime. If crude crosses $120, markets may see panic selling. If it falls below $90, war fears may ease.

He adds that Iran wants crude prices to stay high. This increases pressure on global economies, especially the US. At the same time, the US has allowed limited sale of Iranian oil to cool prices. Iran, however, has denied having excess oil stock.

Why today is ‘make or break’

Anil Singhvi clearly calls today a ‘make or break’ day for markets. He says key support for the Nifty 50 is at 22,750–22,800.

If this level breaks, the next major support is 21,700–22,000. This is a very strong zone. The market has formed a double bottom here earlier. One was during the Lok Sabha election results shock in June 2024. The second was during the tariff-led fall in April 2025.

A break below 22,750 can open the path for deeper correction.

Key risks investors must track

Anil Singhvi lists multiple risks for today’s trade. Aggressive statements from global leaders are negative. Attacks near nuclear facilities raise serious concerns. The risk of a global energy war is increasing.

Crude oil remains elevated. The Indian rupee is near lifetime lows. Foreign institutional investors continue heavy selling. These factors can keep markets under pressure.

What should investors do

Anil Singhvi advises caution. A gap-down opening is likely. Volatility will remain high through the day.

He says investors should not panic. Instead, they should track key levels closely. Holding above 22,750 can bring stability. But if this level breaks, traders should be ready for downside.

In summary, Friday’s gains may not matter much now. Global developments have changed the market mood. Oil prices, war headlines and FII flows will drive the trend. As Anil Singhvi puts it, today’s session can set the direction for the coming weeks.