PSU Stock To Buy: Brokerage expects this Rs 82 largecap to skyrocket 126% after India ends Indus Water Treaty with Pakistan

PSU Stock to Buy: Following the recent Pahalgam terror attack, tensions between India and Pakistan have escalated sharply. In response, India has suspended the Indus Waters Treaty. According to a report by Ventura Securities, the suspension of the treaty is expected to fast-track hydroelectric projects that were previously stalled—especially in Jammu and Kashmir. This is seen as a major positive for NHPC.

NHPC's Presence in Jammu and Kashmir

NHPC is India's leading government-owned hydropower company and has five major projects underway in Jammu and Kashmir. These include:

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• 800 MW Bursar Hydro Project
• 260 MW Dulhasti Project
• 1,856 MW Sawalkot Project
• 240 MW Uri Project
• 930 MW Kirthai Hydro Project

Together, these projects have a total generation capacity of 4,086 MW. NHPC holds a 100 per cent stake in four of them and a 51:49 joint venture with the Jammu and Kashmir government in the Kirthai project.

What is the Indus Waters Treaty?

This treaty allows India to use the water from the three eastern rivers of the Indus river system, while Pakistan has rights over the three western rivers. These rivers are also crucial for hydroelectric power generation.

Impact of the Indus Waters Treaty Suspension

Analysts believe that with the treaty now suspended, these projects could be completed up to two years ahead of schedule. This would significantly boost NHPC’s generation capacity—from the current 7 GW to 12 GW by FY28.

As of December 31, 2024, NHPC has an installed capacity of 7,233 MW, which accounts for about 10 per cent of India’s total hydro capacity (46,968 MW). The company operates 28 power stations. It also has hydro and solar projects totaling 10,804 MW under construction, with another 4,112 MW awaiting clearance, and 4,215 MW in the survey and investigation phase. Overall, the company’s long-term growth prospects look promising.

NHPC Stock Outlook

Currently trading at Rs 82, NHPC has a market capitalisation of over Rs 82,000 crore. Ventura Securities has set a target price of Rs 184 for the next 18–24 months—a potential upside of 126 per cent. The stock hit a 52-week high of Rs 118 in July 2024 and a low of Rs 71 in February 2025.

The brokerage also noted that from a technical standpoint, the stock becomes a buy if it breaks above Rs 91. Short-term targets are set at Rs 100, with a medium-term goal of Rs 118. Strong support is seen at Rs 74, where investors should place their stoploss.

Disclaimer: The views/suggestions/recommendations expressed here in this article are solely by investment experts. Zee Business suggests its readers consult their investment advisers before making any financial decision.