India–US Trade Deal: Anil Singhvi explains who gains, which stocks benefit and where 18% tariffs apply

India and the United States have finalised the framework of an interim trade deal, with executive orders expected from the US side this week to give effect to the agreement.

The executive orders will operationalise the interim arrangement and enable the implementation of an 18 per cent reciprocal tariff. After the US notifications are issued, India is expected to release its own notification outlining the concessions offered under the deal.

Market expert and Zee Business Managing Editor, Anil Singhvi, said the interim framework puts India in a relatively stronger position compared with competing export-oriented economies.

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“India has emerged as one of the biggest beneficiaries of the interim trade framework. Compared with China, Bangladesh, Vietnam and Taiwan, India will now face the lowest effective tariffs in the US market,” Singhvi said.

He added that the interim deal is expected to remain in place until a broader India–US Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) is concluded, which both sides are attempting to complete by next month. “After the BTA, the scope of tariff relief could expand further beyond the current 18 per cent level,” Singhvi said.

Section 232 clarity and zero-duty beneficiaries

A key highlight of the deal is clarity on products covered under Section 232 of the US trade law. Section 232 includes items on which the US imposes duties on national security grounds, separate from trade negotiations.

Singhvi said reciprocal tariffs have been removed on several Indian exports under this category. “Reciprocal tariffs have been removed on generic pharmaceuticals, aircraft parts, natural diamonds and select machinery products,” he said.

He said pharmaceutical companies such as Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, Dr Reddy’s Laboratories and Cipla are expected to benefit from the removal of reciprocal tariffs on generic drugs.

In the gems and jewellery space, Singhvi said companies such as Titan Company and Kalyan Jewellers could gain from improved access to the US market. “The US gems and jewellery market is around $29 billion, and India now has the lowest duty structure among competing countries,” he said.

Singhvi added that aircraft component manufacturers such as Azad Engineering could also benefit following the removal of reciprocal tariffs on aircraft parts.

18 per cent tariff sectors and export-linked stocks

The deal also specifies sectors where the 18 per cent reciprocal tariff will apply, with implementation likely from mid-March. Singhvi said the tariff will cover textiles, leather goods, plastics, rubber products, organic chemicals, home décor items, select machinery and auto components. “Even at 18 per cent, India remains more competitive than other exporting nations,” he said.

In textiles, Singhvi said exporters such as Gokaldas Exports, Nitin Spinners and Arvind are well placed due to relatively lower tariffs compared with peers. In plastics and rubber products, companies such as Supreme Industries and Nilkamal could see opportunities. In organic chemicals, Singhvi named Tata Chemicals, SRF and Vinati Organics as potential beneficiaries.

He said home décor exporters such as Greenply Industries, Century Plyboards and Stylam Industries may also gain from improved competitiveness. In machinery and auto components, Singhvi said export-focused companies could benefit as India currently has a limited share of the large US market.

Agriculture access and protected segments

On agriculture, Singhvi said India has safeguarded its sensitive sectors. “India has not opened its agri market to the US in sensitive areas such as dairy, wheat, rice, poultry, meat, ethanol and tobacco,” he said. He added that protecting farmer-linked sectors was one of the key objectives during negotiations.

At the same time, Singhvi said some Indian agricultural exports will benefit from zero-duty access in the US market. “Exports of tea, coffee, spices and select fruits such as mangoes and bananas will attract zero duty,” he said, adding that this could support agri-linked export companies.

US gains, domestic impact and Harley-Davidson

Singhvi said the deal is a win-win arrangement, with clear benefits for the US as well. “The US intends to increase imports from India significantly over the next five years,” he said. He added that zero duty on US industrial goods entering India could increase competition for domestic manufacturers.

He said capital goods and industrial equipment companies such as Siemens, ABB, Cummins India and Larsen & Toubro may face higher competitive pressure. In medical devices, Singhvi said domestic players such as Poly Medicure and NephroCare India could see some impact due to easier US imports.

In the alcoholic beverages segment, Singhvi said zero duty on US wine and spirits could affect companies such as United Spirits, Radico Khaitan and Allied Blenders.

He also highlighted the reduction of import duty to zero on Harley-Davidson motorcycles. “Zero duty on Harley-Davidson increases competition in the premium motorcycle segment,” Singhvi said, adding that domestic high-end bike manufacturers could face pressure.

Singhvi said the fine print of the interim deal is favourable for India, with export growth potential and limited downside risks for sensitive sectors.