Hindalco Share Price: Should you buy Aditya Birla Group metal stock after Novelis Q4 results?

Shares of Hindalco Industries gained in early trade on Wednesday ahead of the company’s March-quarter earnings, scheduled to be announced on May 22, as brokerages gave mixed views on the stock following the latest updates from Novelis.

Hindalco shares were trading at Rs 1,081, up 3 per cent, at 9:26 am on May 20.

Novelis March quarter results

Ahead of Hindalco Industries announcing its consolidated Q4 FY26 results on May 22, its US subsidiary, Novelis, reported weak March-quarter earnings, impacted by a fire at its Oswego, New York, facility.

Novelis posted a consolidated net loss in Q4 FY26 compared with a profit in the year-ago period, mainly due to pre-tax losses linked to the plant fire incidents in late 2025.

Net sales rose 4 per cent year-on-year, while adjusted EBITDA declined 3 per cent annually as operations were affected by disruptions at the Oswego facility.

Total rolled product shipments fell 12 per cent to 844 kilotonnes during the quarter, with 73 kilotonnes directly impacted by the fires. For the full financial year, Novelis’ net income declined sharply due to significant pre-tax losses related to the Oswego incidents.

JP Morgan remains bullish on Hindalco

JP Morgan maintained an “Overweight” rating on Hindalco and raised its target price to Rs 1,175 from Rs 1,125.

The brokerage said Novelis' management commentary addressed most investor concerns. It highlighted that the Oswego plant restart is expected slightly ahead of the June-end timeline, while the Bay Minette project remains on track in terms of both cost and timeline.

JP Morgan said Novelis continues to see a strong order pipeline in the automotive business and does not expect any major volume loss due to competition.

The brokerage also said pricing conditions remain positive in the beverage can segment.

According to JP Morgan, Novelis is well hedged on energy costs, helping the company manage expenses despite global uncertainty. However, it said scrap availability could tighten once the Oswego and Bay Minette plants ramp up operations, although it does not see this as a major concern due to favourable scrap spreads.

The brokerage added that investors are likely to monitor the pace of the Oswego ramp-up, additional volumes from Bay Minette in FY28 and future scrap price trends.

Jefferies flags concerns on profitability

Jefferies maintained a “Hold” rating on Hindalco with a target price of Rs 890. The brokerage said Novelis reported EBITDA of USD 86 million in the March quarter, down 84 per cent year-on-year.

Adjusted EBITDA, however, stood at USD 459 million, down 3 per cent from a year ago but 17 per cent above Jefferies’ estimates.

Jefferies said the widening gap between reported EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA due to possible insurance recovery linked to the fire incident is making the underlying business performance difficult to assess.

The brokerage also noted that the fire-affected plant is expected to restart within the next few weeks.

It further said Novelis’ net debt rose 8 per cent quarter-on-quarter to USD 6.7 billion.

Citi expects positive cash flow by FY27-end

Citi maintained a “Neutral” rating on Hindalco with a target price of Rs 1,000. The brokerage said Novelis is expected to turn free cash flow positive by the end of FY27, supported by the Oswego restart, Bay Minette nearing completion and strong business momentum.

Citi also highlighted that FY26 cost savings crossed USD 125 million and remained ahead of earlier guidance.

The brokerage said the Oswego plant restart is expected within the next few weeks, ahead of the earlier June-end timeline.

HSBC sees earnings improvement in FY27

HSBC maintained a “Buy” rating on Hindalco and set a target price of Rs 1,310, the highest among the brokerages mentioned. The brokerage said Novelis reported a strong operating performance in Q4FY26 with adjusted EBITDA per tonne at USD 544.

HSBC also said the Oswego restart is progressing ahead of schedule, and the Bay Minette project remains on track, with total capex staying at around USD 5 billion.

According to the brokerage, underlying earnings are expected to improve in FY27 due to operational recovery and improving business conditions.

CLSA sees stronger outlook after Oswego restart

CLSA maintained an “Accumulate” rating on Hindalco with a target price of Rs 1,035. The brokerage said adjusted earnings came in better than expected, helped by stronger scrap spreads, cost reduction initiatives and the expected resumption of the Oswego hot mill.

CLSA noted that adjusted EBITDA per tonne of USD 544 in the fourth quarter was above estimates and partly supported by stronger scrap spreads.

The brokerage said scrap spreads may moderate after the Oswego restart, but reported profitability could see a sharp rebound in the second half of the financial year.

It also said Novelis expects to generate positive free cash flow by the end of FY27, which could help reduce leverage levels over time.

Brokerage views on Hindalco remained mixed ahead of the company’s Q4 earnings announcement, with target prices ranging from Rs 890 to Rs 1,310. However, most firms highlighted improving operational trends at Novelis and progress in key expansion projects as important factors for investors to track in the coming quarters.