Jewellery Stocks vs Gold on MCX: Which gave better returns – Where should you invest?

Jewellery stocks outperformed gold on MCX, with consumer demand remaining strong despite volatile prices, brokerage updates showed. Gold on MCX rose 0.90 per cent in the last week but fell 6.67 per cent over the month.

In comparison, jewellery stocks gained sharply. PN Gadgil rose 9.56 per cent in a week and 13.86 per cent in a month, Kalyan Jewellers advanced 14.96 per cent in a week and 12.50 per cent in a month, while Titan Company gained 10.32 per cent in a week and 5.66 per cent in a month.

The trend shows jewellery stocks delivered better returns than gold in both weekly and monthly periods.

Add Zee Business as a Preferred Source

Titan Company Share Price Target

Titan Company, which is trading at Rs 4,492, remains a key focus for analysts, with multiple brokerages maintaining a positive stance. The stock has a target price of Rs 5,200 by domestic brokerage Motilal Oswal, implying an upside of about 16 per cent from current levels.

The company reported around 46 per cent year-on-year growth in its consumer businesses in 4QFY26. Its jewellery division led the performance with nearly 46 per cent growth, driven by higher ticket sizes and strong demand. Secondary sales rose about 52 per cent, while like-to-like sales growth stood at around 48 per cent.

Buyer growth improved to high single digits after remaining largely flat in the previous quarters. Category-wise, studded jewellery grew in the early 30 per cent range, while plain gold jewellery rose in the mid-30 per cent range. Gold coin sales nearly tripled year-on-year.

Titan Company Share Price Target

The watches and wearables segment grew around 7 per cent, impacted by a sharp decline in the smartwatch category, while eyewear recorded steady growth of about 16 per cent. Titan’s international business reported strong year-on-year growth of around 156 per cent.

Among global brokerages, Goldman Sachs maintained a “Buy” rating with a target of Rs 5,000, implying an upside of about 11 per cent. JP Morgan retained a “Neutral” rating with a target of Rs 4,700, indicating a potential upside of about 5 per cent.

Citi also maintained a “Neutral” rating with a target of Rs 4,750, suggesting an upside of around 6 per cent.

Morgan Stanley maintained an “Overweight” rating with a target of Rs 4,529, indicating a marginal upside of about 1 per cent.

Kalyan Jewellers Share Price Target

Kalyan Jewellers, which is trading at Rs 445, also saw strong traction during the quarter. The stock has a target price of Rs 550, implying an upside of about 24 per cent.

The company reported consolidated revenue growth of about 64 per cent year-on-year in 4QFY26, significantly higher than estimates. Its India business grew around 65 per cent, supported by strong wedding and discretionary demand despite volatile gold prices.

Same-store sales growth stood at around 45 per cent, while the company added 24 net new showrooms in India during the quarter. International revenue grew about 45 per cent, with the Middle East segment reporting around 39 per cent growth.

The Candere business recorded a sharp growth of about 360 per cent year-on-year, supported by store expansion. Brokerage Motilal Oswal maintained a “Buy” rating with a target of Rs 550.

PN Gadgil Jewellers Share Price Target

PN Gadgil (PNG) reported strong revenue growth in its pre-quarterly update for 4QFY26. Total revenue rose 124 per cent YoY to Rs 35.5 billion, beating estimates of Rs 29.8 billion. The retail segment grew 102 per cent YoY, supported by festive and wedding season demand. Same-store sales growth stood at 86 per cent for 3QFY26. Foundation Day sales were Rs 3.6 billion, Gudi Padwa sales were Rs 1.8 billion, up 38 per cent YoY, and Gratitude Day sales were Rs 2.2 billion. E-commerce revenue rose 132 per cent YoY, and franchise operations grew 67 per cent YoY.

The company added 12 stores during the quarter, taking the total to 78 by March 31, 2026, including 57 COCO and 21 FOCO stores. Expansion focused on Maharashtra and new markets in Uttar Pradesh, including Gorakhpur and Varanasi.

For FY27, PNG plans to open 25 new stores, increasing the total to 103, and aims for revenue of Rs 135 billion, up 25 per cent YoY, with an EBITDA margin of around 7.5 per cent. Motilal Oswal has a Buy rating with a target price of Rs 750, implying 22 per cent upside from the current price of Rs 615.

Jewellery sector: Demand Remains Resilient

The overall jewellery sector remained resilient despite a sharp increase in gold prices, which rose around 80 per cent year-on-year and 20 per cent quarter-on-quarter in 4QFY26.

Brokerages noted that demand for organised jewellery players stayed strong, driven by festive and wedding-related purchases, higher old gold exchange, and promotional offers. Gold coin sales remained elevated during the quarter.

Same-store sales growth across the sector is expected to remain in high double digits, largely led by value growth. However, margins may see some pressure due to elevated gold prices, although a stable diamond pricing environment could support the studded jewellery mix.

Brokerages estimate that their coverage universe in the jewellery segment may report revenue, EBITDA and profit growth of about 38 per cent, 47 per cent and 65 per cent, respectively, for the March quarter.

Gold vs Stocks: Where Should You Invest?

Gold on MCX, currently at Rs 1,53,290, has a target of Rs 1,59,000, implying a potential upside of about 3.7 per cent, according to Dr Renisha Chainani of Augmont.

In comparison, jewellery stocks offer significantly higher potential upside based on brokerage targets. Titan Company has an estimated upside of around 16 per cent, while Kalyan Jewellers may deliver about 24 per cent upside. P N Gadgil Jewellers shows the highest potential among peers with an upside of nearly 38 per cent.

The comparison indicates that while gold offers relatively stable and limited upside, jewellery stocks are pricing in stronger growth expectations, supported by robust demand and earnings momentum.