GIFT Nifty hints at cautious start; Nifty’s 22,500 support level in focus

​The Nifty50 index is expected to open on a muted note as GIFT Nifty hovered near 22,630 levels, indicating a flat start. The index ended marginally lower on Tuesday after staying in the green for most of the session, as mixed global cues and persistent selling by FIIs kept a lid on gains.

The 22,500-22,400 zone is a crucial support for Nifty in the near term, as a breakdown below this range could trigger further selling pressure. On the upside, a bearish gap of around 22,670-22,720 is likely to pose resistance, making it a crucial level to watch ahead of the weekly expiry.

FII/DII activity: FIIs remain net sellers

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Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) continued their selling spree, offloading shares worth Rs 3,529 crore on Tuesday. However, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) provided some support by purchasing equities worth Rs 3,031 crore.

The net short position of FIIs reduced marginally from Rs 2 lakh crore on Monday to Rs 1.99 lakh crore on Tuesday, indicating some unwinding of bearish bets. However, overall sentiment remains cautious amid global uncertainty.

India VIX: Volatility index eases

India VIX, a key gauge of market fear, dropped 5.4 per cent to 13.72, suggesting reduced volatility. A further decline in VIX could indicate stabilizing market conditions, but traders remain cautious ahead of key global events.

Stocks in F&O ban today

Manappuram Finance is in the F&O ban list as it crossed 95 per cent of the market-wide position limit (MWPL). Traders should avoid taking new positions in the stock’s derivative segment until restrictions are lifted.

Rupee watch: INR weakens on month-end dollar demand

The Indian rupee fell sharply by 47 paise to close at 87.19 per US dollar on Tuesday. The weakness was driven by month-end dollar demand from importers, coupled with concerns over US trade policies. Any further depreciation could add pressure on equities, particularly in sectors reliant on foreign capital inflows.

Technical outlook: Nifty's key hurdles

• Support levels: 22,500-22,400
• Resistance levels: 22,670-22,720

According to analysts, Nifty's ability to sustain above 22,500 will be crucial in determining the short-term trend. A breakdown could lead to sharp declines, while a move above the resistance zone could trigger fresh buying interest.

Global cues: US and Asian markets in focus

Overnight, Wall Street closed mixed as investors assessed economic data and Federal Reserve commentary. Asian markets were largely flat, with traders awaiting further clarity on US tariff policies.

What to watch today

• GIFT Nifty trends for early cues
• FII and DII flows for market direction
• India VIX movement to gauge volatility
• Nifty’s action near 22,500 support level
• Rupee movement and its impact on equities

With global uncertainty and FII selling pressure persisting, markets are likely to remain range-bound. Traders should keep an eye on key support and resistance levels to navigate today’s session effectively.